- "Military exercises on the territory of Belarus increase the threats not only to Ukraine, but also to Poland and the Baltic countries"
- "By blackmailing with the threat of large-scale war, Moscow wants to get unjustified concessions from the U.S. and NATO, the most important of which is the recognition of Russia's de facto sphere of influence within the former Soviet Union or even the entire former socialist camp"
- "Ukraine also needs more Western assistance to strengthen its defence capabilities, especially in air defence, coastal defence system, cyber security. Without advantages from the air and from the sea, Russia is unlikely to dare a major offensive"
- "In the face of Moscow's aggressive policies, German politicians will have to acknowledge the fact that only transatlantic unity can help curb the growth of Russia’s revisionism and save Europe from a new large-scale war".
“Military exercises on the territory of Belarus increase the threats not only to Ukraine, but also to Poland and the Baltic countries, attacks against which will be practiced during the drills. Of particular concern is the emergence in Belarus of additional Russian S-400 anti-aircraft systems and possibly Iskander ballistic missile systems. If deployed in Best and Gomel regions, these systems will be able to threaten the northern half of Ukraine”, Maksym Khylko, Russian and Belarusian Studies Program Director at the Foreign Policy Council “Ukrainian Prism” notes.
The West can help Ukraine in several dimensions, he explains as well. More about this, as well as Blinken’s and Barbock’s visits in Kyiv: in the interview below.
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PolskieRadio24.pl: In your opinion, is the information about Russia's military actions more disturbing now? We know, among others, about Russian forces brought from Russia to the West (including the Iskanders), operations in the Baltic Sea, new exercises by Russia and Belarus are planned on February 10-20.
Maksym Khylko, Russian and Belarusian Studies Program Director at the Foreign Policy Council "Ukrainian Prism":
I do not think that in the short term one should expect the decrease in the escalation threats from Russia, since Moscow believes it is beneficial to keep Ukraine and its Western partners in constant tension. By blackmailing with the threat of large-scale war, Moscow wants to get unjustified concessions from the U.S. and NATO, the most important of which is the recognition of Russia's de facto sphere of influence within the former Soviet Union or even the entire former socialist camp. Another Moscow’s goal is to worsen the economic situation in Ukraine, as the threat of war scares away investors and raises inflation expectations.
Military exercises on the territory of Belarus increase the threats not only to Ukraine, but also to Poland and the Baltic countries, attacks against which will be practiced during the drills. Of particular concern is the emergence in Belarus of additional Russian S-400 anti-aircraft systems and possibly Iskander ballistic missile systems. If deployed in Best and Gomel regions, these systems will be able to threaten the northern half of Ukraine.
What kind of help does Ukraine need now? How should the West react?
The West can help Ukraine in several dimensions. One of them is to finally agree on a package of really strong deterrent sanctions, along with establishing mechanism for monitoring their implementation and penalties for violation. Unfortunately, the West is constantly at least a few steps behind in terms of sanctions pressure. A possible disconnection of Russia from SWIFT would be a good option for the spring of 2014, then it could prevent the Russian occupation of Crimea and Donbas. But since that time, Russia has developed various mechanisms to reduce the effectiveness of sanctions, so now the package of sanctions must be much stronger to have a real deterrent effect.
Ukraine also needs more Western assistance to strengthen its defence capabilities, especially in air defence, coastal defence system, cyber security. Without advantages from the air and from the sea, Russia is unlikely to dare a major offensive.
We also need Western investment in Ukrainian economy. Surely, there is a homework that Ukraine should do to improve the investment climate. But it should be kept in mind that the stronger the Ukrainian economy is, the more Kyiv will be able to invest in developing own defense capabilities that would decrease Moscow’s appetite for escalation.
How do you assess the visit of Secretary of State Antony Blinken to Ukraine? What were the goals, what are the results? Why is he going to Moscow, Berlin?
Antony Blinken's visit to Kyiv had several goals. This included a demonstration of strong political support for Kyiv, as well as a corresponding signal to European partners that they should also be more active in supporting Ukraine. At the same time, it is a political signal to Moscow that Washington is serious about intentions to actively assist Ukraine in the event of military escalation.
The U.S. Secretary of State also exchanged views with Ukrainian leadership on future talks with European counterparts and the Russian Foreign Minister, with whom Blinken is going to meet in the nearest days. This is another demonstration that fateful decisions will not be made behind Ukrainians backs. Besides, I believe that Antony Blinken also wants to make sure that Kyiv takes the situation enough seriously and that domestic political struggle does not distract from focusing on countering the external aggressor.
How do you assess Annalene Baerbock's visit to Kyiv and Moscow? Does not the German attitude de facto increase the threat of invasion? According to "Handelsblatt", they refuse to impose the most serious sanctions - closing the SWIFT system for Russia and stopping NS2.
On the one side, the visit of the German Foreign Minister to Kyiv before her trip to Moscow is a good sign and a signal that Berlin understands the importance of taking into account Ukraine's position. On the other side, Berlin's belief that tensions can be eased without strengthening Ukraine's defence capabilities is misleading. Berlin would like to hold a meeting in the Normandy format (Ukraine, Russia, Germany, France), hoping that such a meeting would result in de-escalation, and this issue was discussed by Annalena Baerbock both in Kyiv and Moscow. But here Berlin has vain hopes, because so far Moscow is not interested in de-escalation.
Previous policies have made Germany dependent on Russian gas supplies, and this prevents Berlin from taking a firmer stance. But in the face of Moscow's aggressive policies, German politicians will have to acknowledge the fact that only transatlantic unity can help curb the growth of Russia’s revisionism and save Europe from a new large-scale war. Some grounds for optimism are provided by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz statements about readiness to consider Nord Stream 2 penalties if Russia escalates, as well as statement of the Bundestag Defence Committee chairwoman Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann on possibility to consider supplying defence arms to Ukraine. The time has come for Germany to take more responsibility for peace in Europe.
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Ed. Agnieszka Marcela Kamińska, PolskieRadio24.pl
