Centrist candidate Rafał Trzaskowski, representing the ruling Civic Coalition (KO), secured 31.36 percent of the vote and will face Karol Nawrocki, the conservative candidate backed by the main opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party, who garnered 29.54 percent, in a runoff on June 1.
But the main surprise for observers was the level of support for far-right contenders, including libertarian Sławomir Mentzen, who finished third with 14.81 percent,
His showing, combined with the strong performance of far-right MEP Grzegorz Braun—a highly controversial figure who placed fourth with 6.34 percent— indicates that a significant portion of the electorate is turning away from mainstream parties.
'Radical right voices grow louder' across Europe
According to political scientist Artur Roland Kozłowski of WSB Merito University in Gdańsk, northern Poland, the results reaffirm Poland’s binary political structure.
"Around 60 percent of the electorate votes clearly within the two dominant camps," he told public broadcaster Polish Radio, referring to the pro-EU KO and Eurosceptic PiS.
"But the remaining 40 percent are looking for alternatives to this polarised setup," he said.
He added that the second round could signal whether a new political trend is emerging, especially if PiS-backed Nawrocki loses by a wide margin.
Such an outcome, Kozłowski argued, could push disillusioned PiS voters toward the far-right Confederation party, potentially elevating it into a major force ahead of parliamentary elections in 2027.
On the other hand, a close result or a Nawrocki victory would likely reinforce the existing political stalemate.
Kozłowski noted that Braun’s strong showing reflects a broader European shift.
“We are seeing radical right voices grow louder across the continent—in the UK, France, Germany, Romania,” he said. “It’s a search for stronger expression, and right-wing movements are delivering it.”
He pointed to a strong showing by far-right candidate George Simion in Romania's presidential election and the rising popularity of Nigel Farage’s party in the UK as evidence of a continental drift toward political extremes.
Right-wing voters 'avoid declaring their intentions' in pre-election polls
Bartłomiej Biskup of the University of Warsaw highlighted the phenomenon of the “hidden electorate,” noting that some right-wing voters conceal their preferences in polling but reveal them at the ballot box.
This, he argues, helps explain Braun’s result, as well as part of Mentzen’s support.
"You could already see public dissatisfaction with the current government in the polls, but some of Braun and Mentzen’s voters didn’t show up in pre-election surveys," Biskup said. "It’s a global trend—right–wing voters in particular often avoid declaring their intentions.”
Young voters 'drawn to authenticity'
Meanwhile, Anna Pacześniak of the University of Wrocław in southwestern Poland pointed to the unexpectedly narrow gap between Trzaskowski and Nawrocki.
Despite numerous allegations of impropriety levelled against Nawrocki during the campaign, PiS’s support appears to have translated almost directly into votes, she said. "That consolidation is notable," she added.
Pacześniak also called Braun’s fourth-place finish “deeply troubling,” noting that some of his views expressed during the campaign are "incompatible with Polish law."
She added that his support should not be dismissed as mere protest: “It suggests real resonance with extreme views.”
Youth turnout was particularly high, with more than 72 percent of 18–29-year-olds casting votes, analysts noted. Among them, over 36 percent supported Mentzen and nearly 20 percent backed leftist candidate Adrian Zandberg.
"Young people are drawn to authenticity," Pacześniak observed. "They’re looking for something new, and right now, that appears to favour the right."
With the runoff just two weeks away, both remaining candidates will seek to woo voters from eliminated rivals.
According to Pacześniak, the right-wing electorate—Mentzen and Braun’s supporters—represents a natural target for Nawrocki.
However, she notes that voter turnout, at 67.31 percent, was high by presidential election standards but still below the 2023 parliamentary elections, suggesting that Trzaskowski may be able to gain ground through a last-minute mobilisation effort.
"Looking purely at the energy on election night, Nawrocki seemed more buoyant," she said. "But that doesn’t guarantee victory."
Future direction of Polish politics hangs in the balance
Biskup agreed that turnout will be decisive. He cited research showing that up to 30 percent of Mentzen’s voters may abstain in the second round.
"The centre-left is more active at the moment, and this could make a difference of hundreds of thousands of votes," he said.
That leaves the future direction of Polish politics hanging in the balance, according to analysts. If Trzaskowski can rally progressive and centrist voters, he may win narrowly. But if the right consolidates, Nawrocki could claim the presidency, potentially ushering in further fragmentation or a far-right surge down the line.
“The candidate who best captures the supporters of those who fell short in round one will likely win," said Kozłowski. “For Confederation, this could be a moment to grow, perhaps into the country’s second or even leading force. But that depends on whether they play a long game, or throw their weight behind Nawrocki now."
Britain's The Economist magazine predicted on Monday that the result of the first round of Poland's presidential election is a "worrying sign" for Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s pro-EU government.
Trzaskowski will face Nawrocki in a runoff on June 1, after no candidate secured an outright majority in Sunday's vote, according to official results released by electoral officials on Monday.
The winner of the runoff vote will serve a five-year term as head of state, overseeing foreign and defence policy and holding veto power over legislation.
(rt/gs)
Source: polskieradio24.pl