In an interview published on Sunday, Sikorski said Russia "might at most attempt some provocation" rather than a full-scale assault, adding that Moscow had failed to capture the Donbas region after nearly 13 years of trying.
The Polish foreign minister, who also serves as a deputy prime minister, pointed to Ukraine's resilience as evidence that both Kyiv and Europe had outperformed expectations.
"If we had said five years ago that Ukraine would avoid occupation, keep exporting grain via the Black Sea and hold a stable front, no one would have believed us," he said, crediting the EU's 20 rounds of sanctions against Russia for a unity Moscow had not anticipated.
He argued that Russia's military standing had also slipped.
"We thought Putin had the world's second-largest army. Today we can say he has the second-largest army in Ukraine," Sikorski said.
Asked about recent warnings from the Kremlin urging Warsaw to consider its own security, Sikorski was firm: "We have been thinking about our security against Russia for around 500 years, and we are not going to stop."
Still, he acknowledged genuine concern.
"Putin attacked Ukraine based on optimistic and completely mistaken assumptions," causing enormous human suffering and economic damage across Europe, he said.
"So we cannot rule out that, even though he cannot win, he might make a similarly reckless decision again."
Pressed on a Telegraph report claiming the United States had warned Poland of a possible limited Russian armed provocation in the coming months, Sikorski declined to confirm or deny the story directly but said: "It comes from a credible newspaper, so it is probably true."
"That is exactly why we are sending a message to the Russians: we know you are preparing something, just as happened before the invasion of Ukraine."
He said Poland treats its defence "very seriously" but insisted the country's old fears had eased.
"Putin cannot win against Ukraine. And we will make sure he keeps bleeding, even if we have to fight alone. But we are not alone — we have powerful allies, Italy included."
(ał)
Source: PAP