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Pentagon review could shape Poland's bid for permanent US base, analyst says

03.09.2026 23:45
Poland’s bid for a permanent US military base may hinge on a Pentagon review of American troop deployments across Europe, a military analyst has said.
Photo:
Photo:Nicolas Armer/dpa via PAP

European members of NATO have begun submitting answers to a Pentagon questionnaire that will help Washington decide the future size and location of its forces on the continent.

Finland and Lithuania are among the first countries to complete their responses, Polish state news agency PAP reported.

The questionnaire, sent in July, asks allies about defense spending, support for US foreign policy and the American military’s access to European bases, airspace and infrastructure.

The review has raised concerns that Washington could reduce its European presence, particularly on NATO’s eastern flank.

Ray Wojcik, a retired US Army colonel with the Saratoga Foundation think tank, told the PAP news agency that Poland could await the outcome with cautious optimism.

He said the allies’ responses would feed directly into Pentagon decisions on future deployments and could affect Poland’s proposal for a permanent US base.

Polish authorities should give Washington a coherent and clear message explaining Poland’s position on NATO’s eastern flank and why the United States should expand its forward military presence there, Wojcik said.

Poland has formally offered to host a permanent US base and already accommodates about 10,000 American troops, most of them deployed on a rotational basis.

According to US Defense Manpower Data Center figures from March 31, just 382 US service members in Poland were permanently stationed there.

Warsaw submitted its latest proposal for a permanent base in May. After talks with US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth in Brussels on June 18, Polish Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz said Washington had responded positively. He cautioned that no final decision had been made.

Wojcik said Poland has several advantages as the Pentagon weighs its options, including its willingness to provide US forces with extensive access and its investment in infrastructure supporting American troops.

Under the Poland-US Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), Warsaw has spent billions of dollars on infrastructure, logistics and other costs associated with the American military presence, he said.

Poland is also spending about PLN 200 billion (EUR 46.3 billion, USD 54 billion) on defense in 2026, equivalent to 4.81 percent of gross domestic product.

Finance Minister Andrzej Domański said on Tuesday that funding could be found for building a permanent US base if a political decision to establish one is taken.

Wojcik acknowledged that moving forces eastward from Germany could be expensive. Much of the US Army’s European infrastructure is already located in Germany, while a new permanent facility in Poland would require investment.

"The Pentagon obviously has the cost factor in mind, but Poland is the ally most willing in Europe to do the hard work on defense," he said.

He argued that closer cooperation could also serve US military interests by giving American forces greater opportunities to test new doctrine, drones and other combat capabilities in Europe.

Other eastern-flank countries are also stressing increased defense spending and closer cooperation with Washington.

Finland told the United States that its military spending is approaching 3.5 percent of GDP.

The Pentagon review is expected to produce at least four options for the future deployment of US forces in Europe for Hegseth by November 6.

The top US military commander in Europe is due to make recommendations as the review proceeds.

The United States currently has roughly 80,000 military personnel in Europe when permanent and rotational deployments are counted.

Polish Deputy Defence Minister Paweł Zalewski said on Thursday that a US negotiation team would come to Poland this month for another round of talks on establishing permanent US military bases in the country.

"The Americans want to have permanent bases not as a charitable gesture toward Poland, but because they believe that they have such important interests in Poland that they want to be here permanently," Zalewski said.

(rt/gs)

Source: PAP