On Tuesday, Professor Bogdan Góralczyk gave an interview to Super Express's Tomasz Walczak on China's role in the war in Ukraine, including historical and geopolitical context.
According to Góralczyk, Russia will have consulted its military intentions with China and China will have expected a quick victory based on Russia's supposed military prowess. This would have been a blow not only to Ukraine but above all to the "West", thereby raising China's position in the world. Professor Góralczyk suggests that the ideal situation for China would be its global leadership position in partnership with a weaker but still relevant Russia.
Instead, Russia has "messed up the job" and the western countries have united around China's main rival, the USA. Góralczyk emphasized throughout the interview that China is a country where "signs and symbols" are key in communication. He interprets China's behaviour at meetings with Russia as indicating their "fury" at Russia.
Tomasz Walczyk asked Professor Góralczyk if China's recent instruction to its citizens to leave Ukraine is an indication that we may be on the brink of nuclear war. Góralczyk suggested that "probably not" since China has given a similar instruction once before, to Chinese students studying in Ukraine. However, as Góralczyk emphasized a few times in the course of the interview, these are educated guesses as we lack access to private meetings.
However, Góralczyk does not expect that China will throw Russia "under the bus" because of its failure in Ukraine. China needs allies, particularly after its key failures related to COVID, Hong Kong and Taiwan.
In this context and bearing in mind Chinese culture's emphasis on "signs", China is still reeling, according to Góralczyk, from Nancy Pelosi's August visit to Taiwan. (Our coverage of Pelosi's Taiwan visit.) "I would even go as far as to say that following the much-publicised visit of Nancy Pelosi - the "third figure" in the United States - to Taiwan... we have a second front in this war."
Professor Góralczyk said China "might" intervene to pressure Russia to sue for peace, but he emphasized that to some extent the US and China have a common interest in a long war - weakening Russia. For the USA - as a weakened enemy; for China - Russia reduced to the status of "junior partner".
A worse result for China would be, Góralczyk continued, an unpredictable "palace revolt" removing Putin from office. Worse still for China would be a revolt based on mass opposition from the Russian people, which could leave China without a partner. In this situation China may decide to play the role of peace mediator. What is more, they are the only credible power which could play this role at the moment - according to Góralczyk.
Góralczyk emphaszied Russia's dependence on China: "Neither Xi Jinping nor anyone else can personally forbid Putin or his successor from using nuclear weapons. But China's capacity can. With sanctions on Russia from every side, without China and, to a lesser extent, without India - Russia is nothing."
However, Góralczyk also emphasized that North Korea is taken seriously by China and the USA, merely because of its nuclear capacity and despite its poor economic situation.
Sources: Super Express, Radio Poland
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