As discussed in the Washington Post, Turkey has given several indications that it is moving away from its (already former?) ally Russia in the direction of the EU and the West:
- Although Turkey had blocked Sweden's NATO membership since May 2022, it dropped its oppostion to Finland in March 2023, from Russia's perspective adding another "enemy at the gates" as Finland shares a border with Russia.
- Turkey then softened its position on Sweden while also reiterating its "pro-Western" course by offering to exchange Sweden's NATO membership for Turkey's EU accession. The EU refused to connect the two processes.
- Turkey agreed last weekend to release Azov brigade commanders held in Turkey and viewed as "terrorists" by Russia, having hosted President Zelensky the preceding Friday.
- Then on Monday July 10 2023, Turkey agreed to "unilaterally" drop its opposition to Sweden's NATO membership, as NATO head Jens Stoltenberg announced.
All in all, Russia will view this as a "three-in-one" problem: thanks to Turkey, three countries in its immediate vicinity have cahnged status from neutral to hostile or from friend to neutral - and Russian foreign policy is very much based on its perceived right to a "sphere of influence" around its borders.
Sources: PAP, Washington Post, Foreign Policy Research Institute, CNN
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