“In Poland, during the PiS era, civil servants were replaced by party loyalists—we know what that meant in practice. For the U.S., it would mean the same as it did for Poland. Therefore, Trump's return would not be comparable to his first four years in office; it would be much worse,” warned one of today’s most prominent political visionaries in a conversation with Maciej Nowicki from Newsweek.
“I fear that democratic institutions may not survive. Does all of this mean the end of democracy in the U.S.? For me, that’s an open question,” the scholar stated, contemplating the scenarios that could follow a Republican candidate's victory.
The threat to NATO: potential implications of Trump’s withdrawal for European security
According to Fukuyama, due to Trump's aversion to NATO, one must consider his potential desire to withdraw the United States from the alliance. Although this would not be easy without Senate support, there are other possible scenarios.
“The problem is that Trump does not need to formally withdraw from NATO to weaken its deterrent capabilities against Russia. It would be enough to signal that, under certain circumstances, he would not fulfill commitments under Article 5. The risk of such a signal is much greater than the risk of a formal withdrawal from the alliance,” Fukuyama cautioned.
He believes that Ukraine would suffer the most under a Trump administration, as the former president has openly expressed his disdain for Zelensky and his sympathy for Putin.
Ukraine and Estonia at risk: Fukuyama highlights the dangers of a Trump presidency
Fukuyama asserts that a Republican victory in November would significantly impact international politics. America's enemies, populists, and authoritarian leaders—especially Russia's president—would be the most pleased with Trump's success.
In the scholar's view, increasing defense spending is the best way for Europe to prepare for the possibility of Trump returning to the presidency.
“If Russia succeeds in defeating Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, and other countries on the European periphery will become targets,” Fukuyama stated. He also warned that Estonia, which has a Russian-speaking minority, could be in danger.
Source: „Newsweek”/X/@NewsweekPolska
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