Recently in Foreign Policy there appeared an article suggesting that the Polish American community, "Polonia", relatively small as it is, could turn the American election.
The article focussed on the critical swing state of Pennsylvania, home to 800 000 Polish Americans. Harris has focussed on this state and the Polish people there, playing on their fears of a Russian victory in Ukraine:
"Arguing that Poland would be the Kremlin’s next target if Russia wins in Ukraine, Harris said that if Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump were president, “Putin would be sitting in Kyiv right now.”"
Trump's campaign has also carried out a number of targeted "sub-campaigns", but his name-dropping of "Kościuszko" must seem somewhat historical compared to the urgency of the war in Ukraine.
A recent survey carried out in Poland found that Polish people living in their homeland overwhelming support Harris:
However, the Polish-American community has been traditionally more conservative than those who "stayed back", so a simple extrapolation to Pennsylvania is not possible.
A recent interview with national security expert and Polish-American professor Jakub Grygiel throws some light on the other side of the story - how much will the American election impact Poland?
Grygiel suggests that electioneering and foreign policy are carried out according to completely different logics and that while people will say anything to get elected, foreign policy will be more rational. He suggests there will not be a considerable difference in foreign policy regarding Poland for a possible President Trump or a possible President Harris.
However, he does suggest that Trump is less keen to emphasize the unity of the European Union than the democrats and so may consult Poland more on eastern-European policy than Harris - who may continue the Biden appraoch of consulting the "Old European" countries of France, Germany and the UK as "Europe's leaders".
This approach seems somewhat out of date, Grygiel also implies, given Poland's growth in the last 20 years as a military force in its own right.
Sources: Foreign Policy, Polish Radio, Układ Otwarty - Igor Janke
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