Much will depend on Donald Trump, the author of the peace plan. Any misstep could be exploited by Russia to stir up anti-Western sentiment across the Muslim and Arab world.
The release of Israeli hostages held by Hamas for two years in horrific conditions is, without question, a cause for joy.
These people bear no responsibility for how Israel has waged the war; they are victims of a terrorist attack. Yet Israel’s propaganda often used their suffering to argue that reports of Gaza’s humanitarian disaster came only from anti-Semites indifferent to the hostages’ fate—as if the suffering of one group justified the torment of another.
The end of the Palestinians’ ordeal, too, should be welcomed unconditionally—regardless of whether Hamas lays down its arms or what becomes of the two-state solution.
The people of Gaza must be guaranteed the right to live safely and with dignity, and any attempt by Israelis to colonize the territory must end once and for all.
It remains unclear what convinced Hamas that Israel would not renege on the deal once the hostages were returned.
It is quite possible that both sides expect to deceive the other.
Israel’s far-right coalition partners, Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, have already said openly that military operations should continue until Hamas is completely destroyed.
For Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, halting now is also risky—polls suggest he would lose the next election, just a year away.
Netanyahu accepted the agreement only because Trump forced his hand.
It is equally clear that Hamas has no intention of disappearing. On the contrary, it is likely to rebrand and hide its weapons to use them again later.
Trump’s plan does not specify who will oversee Hamas’ disarmament. It cannot be Israeli forces, which are supposed to withdraw entirely from Gaza, nor the Palestinian Authority, excluded from any role until it undergoes reforms.
The plan mentions “international forces,” a notion Hamas opposes.
It’s hard to imagine European countries sending troops or police there. If such a mission were purely observational, Hamas’ disarmament would depend on its goodwill—as was the case with Hezbollah in Lebanon, where the UNIFIL mission lacked a mandate to use force and thus never disarmed the group.
Should international forces in Gaza resort to force, they would inevitably be drawn into Israel’s war with Hamas.
It’s doubtful, for instance, that Polish soldiers would want to take part in that.
Russia, meanwhile, has long waged an aggressive propaganda campaign across the Arab and Muslim world against what it calls the “collective West.”
The Kremlin’s goal is to make all Western countries appear complicit in the actions of a few. In pro-Russian media narratives, the West—including Poland—is blamed for all Palestinian suffering.
On social media, figures like Iranian academic Mohammad Marandi, who once studied English literature but is now an ardent admirer of Putin, post daily in English about starving or dead Palestinian children, accusing the “collective West” of genocide — while saying nothing about victims of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Russia will not join any international force in Gaza, just as it avoids participating in UNIFIL in Lebanon.
In its propaganda, it will claim it was excluded by the West—when in reality, it simply wants to avoid conflict with either Israel or Hamas.
Moscow’s real aim is to see the “collective West” entangled in another Middle Eastern war, which it can then exploit for anti-Western propaganda.
If, however, Trump’s plan succeeds and leads to lasting peace based on a two-state solution and the expansion of the Abraham Accords, global attention will once again turn to Russian imperialism and its crimes.
The two-state solution would mean peaceful coexistence between Palestine and Israel, while the Abraham Accords would normalize Israel’s relations with the broader Arab world.
Achieving this will require goodwill from many nations—something that is not yet in sight.
Perhaps, though, international forces in Gaza could be composed of Turkish and Arab units, which might prove more acceptable to Hamas, if not to Israel.
In the end, much depends on Trump himself. Will he be determined enough to deliver peace? The Nobel Peace Prize eluded him this year, though he made no secret of his desire for it. But perhaps next year will be different.
Witold Repetowicz
Witold Repetowicz. Photo: PR24/AK
The author is an assistant professor at the War Studies University in Warsaw.