In the face of dynamic geopolitical challenges and hybrid threats, the role of Polish-Lithuanian cooperation in strengthening the stability and resilience of the region is becoming crucial. The Embassy of the Republic of Lithuania in Poland held an international seminar titled Lithuanian-Polish Cooperation in the Face of Today’s Geopolitical Challenges.
One of the forum’s topics was Common Security: Poland and Lithuania Facing Contemporary Threats. Experts from both countries took part in the discussion.
One of the panels addressed issues of bilateral military cooperation and border protection, including challenges arising from the proximity of Belarus and the Kaliningrad Oblast. In addition, it focused on exploring cutting-edge technological solutions aimed at enhancing border security, with particular emphasis on the use of drones. The second part of the meeting concentrated on cooperation in tackling cyber threats and countering disinformation. The third part of the discussion focused on the importance of NATO in the Baltic Sea region and on opportunities to strengthen bilateral defence cooperation.
We discuss these and other issues with Giedrius Česnakas, who at the time of our conversation was an adviser to Dovilė Šakalienė, the former Minister of Defence of the Republic of Lithuania.
Giedrius Česnakas: I believe that we have enormous potential when working together as the Baltic countries plus Poland, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands. All these countries are highly concerned about the security of the region. We also have to take into account that if we look at the Northern and Baltic countries collectively — considering their populations and economies — they are roughly comparable in size to Russia. Together they have more than 30 million people, which is more than Ukraine currently has in terms of both population and economic capacity, especially given the ongoing war it is fighting to defend itself against Russia. If we add Poland, our combined economy becomes roughly twice the size of Russia's and about half of its population, with significant technological advantages supported by our allies. This shows real potential. And if we go further by including Germany, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands, we see an enormous capability that can be coordinated for practical defense. We can coordinate within NATO to represent our security interests and to attract allies, because all these countries share very similar views regarding the United States’ role in NATO, its presence in the region, and its commitment to NATO security. These countries — especially Lithuania and Poland, which lead in defense investments, followed by Estonia and Latvia, as well as the Nordic countries that are also increasing their defense spending — demonstrate a tremendous potential for multilateral cooperation based on common interests and shared concerns.
Giedrius Česnakas particularly emphasized the economic as well as the cultural potential of our countries.
Giedrius Česnakas: We also should not forget that there is enormous economic potential in this region, because Sweden, Finland, and Norway are relatively high-income, innovative, and technologically advanced countries. The same applies to Poland and to all three Baltic states. Therefore, closer cooperation among us — both economically and in the defense sector — is very important. Of course, a major challenge is the cultural aspect, since the Nordic countries tend to view themselves somewhat separately from the region. Because of this, we need to put significant effort into building a more common identity in matters of security, economics, and culture.
One of the major issues in our region is the potential threat posed by Russia and the Lukashenka regime in Belarus. How prepared are we to face it?
Giedrius Česnakas: Concerning our security in relation to Russia, we usually talk about the border defense line, the Eastern Shield, and Poland. It is a useful narrative because it allows us to advance in defense planning and to ensure effective protection from possible attacks by Russia and its ally Belarus. However, I believe we need to change our mindset. When we speak about the corridor, we tend to assume that it will be extremely difficult to defend and that we should not operate beyond our own territories. But if the enemy starts aggression, we should not limit ourselves strictly to our own territory, because successful defense also requires offensive action. We must look at this challenge more broadly. Long-range rockets, drones, maneuverability — all of this allows us to expand the area we defend by having a certain offensive capability. This is not new: NATO senior officials have also emphasized that we need to adjust our thinking. If Russia attacks Poland or other allies, similar principles apply — we must have strategies and operations ready to address these challenges not only by defending our territory, but by adopting a wider operational perspective when necessary. Of course, I am not suggesting any primitive or reckless actions. We must prepare and fortify our own territory for defense. But if an attack happens, we should not be restricted to our territory alone. A more proactive approach is necessary to create strategic challenges for Russia and its allies.
The Baltic states not only share a border with Russia but also experienced occupation by the Soviet Union from 1940 to 1991. And the Russian Federation considers itself the legal successor of the USSR. Lithuania’s capital, Vilnius, is located close to the border with Russia’s ally — Belarus, which is under the control of pro-Russian dictator Aliaksandr Lukashenka. How does Lithuania view its security in this situation?
Giedrius Česnakas: When we talk about the defense of either Lithuania or Poland, or Latvia we have to consider NATO defense as a whole. There are NATO defense plans, and NATO will not sit passively or idly. The military knows what they have to do: what the Polish military has to do, what the Lithuanian and Latvian armed forces have to do. We are building both the defense line (Eastern Shield in Poland is a part of it). We know where to establish areas that will be difficult to pass by agressor, while at the same time keeping areas that allow for our maneuvering, because NATO warfare is based on maneuver. When we talk about the defense of Vilnius and other cities, planning and application take place. We recently conducted exercises on mobilization and tested evacuation of governmental institutions and military units. The results are being analyzed, and adjustments are being considered. We may need to develop additional infrastructure to enable this, and of course coordination between institutions is crucial. This process takes time — several years to become fully efficient — but we have already started and are now perfecting the approach. It will not be fast, but we are on the right path. Our militaries have their plans and defense strategies at the NATO level, not only at the national level, and they are ready to act if necessary.
And what would happen if Russia were to suddenly attack Lithuania? What is the plan of action? And what role would NATO forces stationed in the country and in neighboring states play?
Giedrius Česnakas: We should not talk about who will protect Lithuania, because we will defend it together as NATO. Poland, the United Kingdom, and other countries — everyone has their role to fulfill. The Lithuanian military is being strengthened, and the presence of the German brigade is expected by the end of 2027. We are working on that and building a national division. Yes, our resources are more limited, both in manpower and financially, because we are a country of 2.8 million people, but we are doing our best to prepare for this defense. Funding will be approximately more than 5%, so this is the best we can do. However, the focus should be on the role each ally has to fulfill. Poland is an essential logistical hub. It is crucial for defense plans in the Suwałki area and is very important in the bilaterally developed defense plans. Poland is also heavily committed to border policing. I think we have a common understanding that we should move from border policing into air defense, with a stronger presence of NATO allies in both of our countries. We are doing very well in advocating for more funding from the European Union. By cooperating together, our interests in higher funding for countries on the Eastern flank are combined. We try to reinforce each other’s positions. In our thinking, what is good for Poland is also good for Lithuania. Further regional cooperation between Poland and other countries in the region would create more benefits for the region overall. We have been cooperating successfully in this regard.
For Europe East Viktar Korbut