Donald Trump reignited concern about the future of the alliance on Wednesday, saying the United States did not need NATO and again calling it a "paper tiger."
He had earlier said he was considering taking the United States out of the alliance, and media reports said NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte is expected in Washington next week.
Two Polish experts told state news agency PAP that a full US departure is still a remote scenario. Even so, they said the consequences would be severe for European security.
NATO, founded in 1949, is the transatlantic military alliance linking the United States, Canada and most of Europe. Its Article 5 collective defense clause says an attack on one member is to be treated as an attack on all.
Retired General Roman Polko, former commander of Poland’s elite GROM special forces unit and a former deputy head of the National Security Bureau (BBN), said Trump was more likely using the threat as leverage than preparing to act on it.
He said Trump likes to keep options open and would lose political room for maneuver if he made such a radical move.
Polko added that staying inside NATO also gives Washington the power to block or slow alliance decisions.
Still, Polko said the idea should not be dismissed lightly. If the United States were to leave, he argued, Putin would almost certainly try to probe how the European members of NATO would respond under Article 5.
In his view, that could mean more hybrid attacks, a term used for hostile actions such as sabotage, cyberattacks, disinformation and pressure on borders and infrastructure.
He said Moscow could even attempt a direct military operation.
Polko argued that Europe should respond by building greater strategic autonomy within NATO, meaning a stronger European capacity to act and deter threats even if Washington becomes less reliable.
Maciej Milczanowski, head of the Department of War Studies at the University of Rzeszów, southeastern Poland, likewise said Trump’s statements were most likely political signaling aimed largely at a domestic US audience ahead of the mid-term elections later this year.
But he said a US exit could not be ruled out entirely and would require a major reorganization of NATO structures, because American officers and institutions hold many key command roles within the alliance.
Milczanowski said such a shift would almost certainly be gradual rather than abrupt, with US personnel remaining in NATO posts until European replacements could take over.
He argued that Europe already has substantial military potential, even if it still lacks some capabilities, and added that the key issue is deterrence rather than winning a large war outright.
He also said Russia already sees an opening during Trump’s presidency. In his view, Moscow would like to make use of that moment, but its war in Ukraine is limiting how far it can go.
At the same time, he rejected Trump’s suggestion that the United States could comfortably do without NATO, arguing that recent tensions around the war in Iran had demonstrated the alliance still serves American interests.
He added that NATO is a defensive alliance and is not meant to be used as a tool for attacking other states without agreement from its members.
(rt/gs)
Source: PAP