Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party won nearly 50 percent of the vote in Sunday's parliamentary election, giving it enough support to form a new government on its own.
The result strengthens Pashinyan’s mandate to continue moving Armenia closer to the European Union and the United States, while reducing the country’s dependence on Russia.
Armenia has long relied on Moscow for security and trade, but relations have worsened sharply since Azerbaijan retook control of Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023.
Nagorno-Karabakh is a region inside Azerbaijan that had an ethnic Armenian population and was at the center of decades of conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Its loss remains one of the most sensitive issues in Armenian politics.
Narek Sukiasyan, a political scientist at Yerevan State University, told Poland's PAP news agency that the new government was likely to continue its current foreign policy course.
"The new government will probably continue the course already adopted, strengthening ties with the European Union, seeking to normalize relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey with US support, and reducing dependence on Russia," he said.
The main obstacle is constitutional. Pashinyan’s party did not win the two-thirds parliamentary majority needed to change Armenia’s constitution.
Azerbaijan has demanded that Armenia remove language that Baku says implies a claim to Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan has made that one of the conditions for implementing a peace agreement.
"Pashinyan’s party and the international community will have to show greater creativity in trying to overcome this final, artificial barrier introduced by Azerbaijan," Sukiasyan said.
He added that Azerbaijan and Turkey, which backs Baku, could use the issue to keep the conflict alive.
The election also showed that Russia still has influence in Armenian politics. The main opposition groups support closer ties with Moscow and accuse Pashinyan of making too many concessions to Azerbaijan.
Sukiasyan said the stronger presence of Russia-friendly parties in parliament could be seen as a "limited success" for the Kremlin, although Civil Contract received more votes than in the previous parliamentary election in 2021.
The party won fewer seats because turnout was much higher this time.
Russia has been accused by Western observers of trying to influence the election through pressure and disinformation. Moscow has denied wrongdoing and accused the West of interference.
The campaign took place in a tense and highly polarized atmosphere. Civil Contract accused opposition groups of vote buying and bringing voters from Russia, while the opposition accused Pashinyan of using state resources for political purposes.
Dozens of people linked to major opposition parties were detained over suspected electoral violations.
Sukiasyan said the reported irregularities did not appear to undermine the overall vote.
"Although there were violations on election day, they do not seem to call into question the integrity of the entire system," he said. He added that many of the cases appeared to have a real basis, but would have to be assessed by the courts.
The election has also renewed debate over the state of Armenian democracy. Some civil society groups have warned for years that Pashinyan’s leadership has shown authoritarian tendencies, despite his pro-Western orientation.
"When the opposition in parliament is far from being a democratic force, it always creates the impression that the ruling party is the more democratic one," Sukiasyan said. "That encourages actions that would not be tolerated under other conditions."
He said this was one reason many Western leaders still saw Pashinyan’s party as their preferred partner.
"It is very important that, in contacts with Armenia, Western leaders also raise issues of accountability and democracy, in a context that goes beyond geopolitical issues," Sukiasyan said.
European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said on Monday in Nicosia, Cyprus, that Armenia appeared to have chosen a European future despite Russian pressure.
"It looks like now that Armenia’s people, although under heavy Russian pressure, still chose to have a European future, which is a good thing," Kallas said before an informal meeting of European Union defense ministers.
(rt/gs)
Source: PAP