Nowak, of Akademia Vistula, spoke as President Karol Nawrocki and Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski prepare to attend the 81st UN General Assembly this week. Its theme is "Restoring trust, managing transformation: a UN that works effectively". Sikorski is due to speak on defending international law, Russia's aggression against Ukraine and effective multilateralism.
Nowak said the UN has been sidelined in the biggest conflicts of the day, including Russia and Ukraine, the United States and Israel against Iran, and Israel and the Palestinians. He said the organisation "allowed itself to be pushed completely into the shadows".
He added that the United States has floated a "Peace Council" outside the UN system, which he said has no legal basis.
Money is another problem. Nowak said the United States, China and others have paid their dues late or not at all, leaving the UN close to bankruptcy. Humanitarian needs are growing, with more conflicts than at any time since 1990, alongside threats from climate change, nuclear risks and artificial intelligence.
Reform is also stuck. The Security Council's permanent membership is almost unchanged since 1945, and changing it requires the consent of every permanent member, so the veto blocks any move.
Nowak sees a possible opening in India and Brazil. He said they could invest more in the UN in return for a bigger say, including more non-permanent Security Council seats for African, Asian and South American countries.
Even so, he said, the UN remains indispensable. "It is needed, in my view, more than ever," he said, because it brings all countries together to discuss the hardest issues.
Smaller states and those of the global south especially value that forum, he said, along with UN work on development aid and public health. He pointed to the World Health Organization, noting that infectious diseases do not recognise borders.
The choice of the next secretary-general will be crucial, Nowak said. The successor, very likely the first woman in the post, will take office with the UN "on the brink of irrelevance".
He said the last two terms were almost wasted and marked by passivity on security, though Antonio Guterres worked in extremely difficult conditions.
There is no clear favourite, Nowak said. Because geographical balance is a priority, candidates from South America have the best chance.
The UN's fate ultimately rests with its members, he said, rejecting the view that the organisation itself is to blame.
"There were countless good ideas for reform, but member states could not agree," he said.
(jh)
Source: PAP