The surveys put Democrats ahead by 11 percentage points in Michigan, 7 in Texas, 6 in Maine, 5 in Ohio and Kansas, 2 in Alaska and 1 in Iowa. Only the leads of Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan and James Talarico in Texas exceeded the margin of error.
Republicans hold the Senate 53-47 and began the campaign as strong favourites to keep it, with most of the 35 seats up for election in traditionally Republican territory.
Democrats must win four of the seven key contests, plus the seats where victory is expected, to take control. The party is also a strong favourite to regain the House of Representatives.
The Times linked the Democrats’ improved showing to the president’s low approval ratings, discontent over living costs and petrol prices, regained support among young and Latino voters, and weaker Republican backing among white working-class voters.
The newspaper said this year’s polls adjusted for past errors, when Republican support was underestimated. Using earlier methodology, Democratic leads would range from 4 points in Iowa to 16 in Michigan.
Earlier Times polling suggested Democrats also had a chance in Nebraska and South Carolina, both Republican strongholds.
Left turn
France’s Le Monde reported on Monday that the Democratic Party’s left wing is increasingly drawing on socialist ideas, shifting focus from minority rights to economic inequality. It pointed to independent Senator Bernie Sanders and New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani, who stress living costs, housing, wages and healthcare.
In 2026, 123 candidates backed by the Democratic Socialists of America, which has about 120,000 members, won primaries, 19 of them for Congress, the paper said. An August CBS News/YouGov poll found 58% of Democratic voters view socialism favourably.
“This has been building since the 2008 financial crisis, when many people, especially young people, began to wonder: maybe capitalism, or what we now call neoliberalism, doesn’t work”, historian Michael Kazin was quoted as saying by Le Monde.
On Tuesday, Americans will elect all 435 House members and 35 of the 100 senators. Republicans currently control both chambers, but polls suggest President Donald Trump’s party could lose the House and, according to some surveys, the Senate.
(jh)
Source: PAP, Polish Radio