Yosyf Zisels is a Ukrainian human rights activist and former Soviet dissident. He spoke this week to the Polish Press Agency (PAP) about four possible scenarios in which the wars ends.
Scenario 1: The Ideal Case
In this scenario, Ukraine is entirely victorious. Russia capitulates, withdrawing or having been pushed out of all of Ukraine's territory. A peace treaty is signed according to which Russia pays reparations and war criminals are brought to trial. What are the conditions for this to be possible? Zisels says this scenario is extremely unklikely because it requires the joint action of the USA and China. Similar cases were the defeats of Germany and Japan after WWII.
Scenario 2: Compromise
In this scenario, Russia is pushed out of Ukraine to the 1991 borders. The war does not officially end, but deescalates considerably. Russia is not brought under direct international control and is left "alone with itself", with resentment and the desire for revenge brewing. This scenario probably involves considerable loss of life and economic costs.
Scenario 3: An Unsatisfactory Outcome
Ukraine is only able to regain part of its territory, for example to the military borders at the beginning of 2022. There is no end to the war, only a temporary cessation of hostilities because both sides are exhausted by the war. This outcome might reduce the number of casualties in the short-term, but the situation would remain unstable.
Scenario 4: Disaster
A military equilibrium is reached along the de facto borders of autumn 2023. War is semi suspended, but the situation remains unclear. This scenario is similar to the case of Donbas in 2017-2022. This scenario might represent the lowest number of casualties in the short term, but its stability will have many dependencies - on the future behaviour of global powers, electorates etc.
Source: PAP
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