Background
On 23 June 2023, Russia's mercenary-based Wagner Group, rebelled against the government of Russia. The Wagner Group's leader Yevgeny Prigozhin had been in open conflict with Russia's Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, as well as making several less explicit criticisms of Russia's President Vladimir Putin.
In his video message on Telegram, Prigozhin took the hitherto unprecedented step of undermining the Russian propaganda rationale for the war:
"The war was needed... so that Shoigu could become a Marshal, so that he could get a second Hero Star… the war wasn't for demilitarising or de-nazifying Ukraine. It was needed for an extra star."
Prigozhin's Wagner forces are estimated to include around 10 000 contractors and 40 000 convicts. The Wagner forces took control of the Russian port city Rostov-on-Don on 23 June and began heading towards Moscow in an armoured column.
A deescalation was apparently negotiated by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, according to which Prigozhin agreed to stand down, withdraw Wagner troops from Rostov-on-Don and move to Belarus with some of his troops.
Putin subsequently invited Wagner personnel to join the regular Russian army.
Poland
Poland's response as reflected in the media has focussed on the potential threat from the eastern border with Belarus - with the new presence of Wagner forces there. Radio Poland reported on Deputy Prime Minister Kaczyński's declaration that Poland will strengthen its eastern border militarily.
Government responses have also included several references to "hybrid war" - the refugee crisis generated at the Belarusian-Polish border by Russia and Belarus. These references are in line with the government's pre-election narrative concerning the EU and immigration quotas.
Germany
The German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has said the events of last weekend above all reveal Russia's weakness. Scholz resisted "sticking the boot in" saying that it was not his role to speculate when Putin's demise might come.
In a recent Tweet, Scholz reiterated his support for Ukraine, but warned that the war may continue for a long time:
The international broadcaster Deutsche Welle published this broader analysis of the growing role of mercenary forces in Russia. They report that paramilitary organisations have been an integral part of Putin's strategy but that with the Wagner Group he has lost control.
The Deutsche Welle report compares the Wagner situation with the so-called "Kadyrovites" - after the name of their leader Ramzan Kadyrov. The Chechen paramilitary organisation has reportedly signed agreements with the Russian state military, per Putin's request, whereas Prigozhin refused point blank.
Russia
The independent Moscow Times, operating today out of Amsterdam, has attempted to analyse what is going on behind the scenes in Russia. In one article they report anonymous sources close to the Kremlin that Prigozhin's attacks on Russia's military leadership would not have been sanctioned by Putin.
The newspaper also stresses the lack of resistance encountered by Prigozhin's forces on their road to Moscow. This contradicts Putin's spin that the deescalation was a victory for Russian patriotism: Russian citizens did not take to the streets or oppose the convoy in any way. They rather took to the shops to stockpile supplies for a possible military conflict.
USA
Prigozhin's face has quickly become a familiar one in the American press, being presented as a key "actor" in the war. Until the rebellion, American readers and viewers could be forgiven for thinking that Vladimir Putin was the only figure representing Russia in the war.
The President was emphatic that the USA had "no part" in the Wagner rebellion, perhaps alluding to past American foreign policy. However, the POTUS Twitter account has been focussed on domestic economic issues, only mentioning Russia briefly in the context of Prime Minister Modi's visit:
Ukraine
The events look somewhat different in the Ukrainian press. Prigozhin and his Wagner Group are above all referred to as war criminals, rather than "mercenaries" - the predominant term in other countries. The "rebellion" is instead reffered to as Russia being on the brink of "civil war".
President Zelensky's comments on the Russian rebellion (below) were brief but damning. He also added an appeal to world leaders and press to preserve "reality" - the reality of the war crimes committed by an unprovoked Russia.
Sources: Radio Poland, The Kyiv Independent, CNBC, Deutsche Welle, The Guardian, Twitter
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