In its March projection, the bank had expected the Polish economy to grow 3.5 percent this year and 4.2 percent in 2025.
Meanwhile, inflation is projected to stand at 3.7 percent this year, followed by 5.2 percent in 2025 and 2.7 percent in 2026, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) said in its latest Inflation Report, which was released on July 5.
GDP growth in CEE 'below long-term average'
According to the report, "economic conditions in the environment of the Polish economy have remained subdued despite a slight improvement" in recent months.
"In the euro area, annual GDP growth rose in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the fourth quarter of 2023, yet remained low," it said.
"In Central and Eastern Europe, GDP growth in the first quarter of 2024 also picked up, although it was running below the long-term average," the report added.
"Global economic conditions continued to be adversely affected by the effects of the earlier tightening of financial conditions and the supply shocks of the previous years," the Polish central bank said.
"At the same time, lower inflation, amid the continued very good situation in the labour markets in most economies, supported growth in real wages and domestic demand," it reported.
Consumer price growth in Poland 'constrained by intensified competition,' dearer zloty
The report also said that consumer price growth in Poland was recently "constrained by intensified competition in the retail food market, and the appreciation of the exchange rate of the zloty against the major currencies."
The central bank’s rate-setting Monetary Policy Council this month left key interest rates unchanged, keeping the reference rate at 5.75 percent.
Upbeat forecasts for Polish economy
International ratings agency S&P Global last month upgraded its forecast for Poland's GDP growth this year to 2.9 percent, from a previous projection of 2.8 percent.
The agency also raised its forecast for Polish economic growth in 2025 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3 percent, Poland’s PAP news agency reported.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) said in May that it expected Polish GDP to grow 2.9 percent this year and 3.5 percent in 2025.
The European Commission in May raised its forecast for Polish economic growth this year to 2.8 percent, from a previous projection of 2.7 percent.
The EU’s executive also predicted that the Polish economy would expand 3.4 percent next year.
Poland's gross domestic product expanded by 0.2 percent in 2023, after growing 5.6 percent in 2022, according to the state-run Statistics Poland (GUS) agency.
Finance Minister Andrzej Domański said in April that Poland’s economy was on track to grow 3.1 percent this year and 3.7 percent in 2025.
Polish President Andrzej Duda in late January signed into law the country’s budget for 2024, which expects the economy to grow 3 percent this year.
(gs)
Source: IAR, PAP, nbp.pl
