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Polish GDP to grow 3.7% in 2025, 2.9% in 2026: central bank

17.03.2025 00:30
Poland’s central bank has updated its GDP growth forecasts for the country, saying it now expects the economy to expand 3.7 percent this year, followed by 2.9 percent growth in 2026 and 2.3 percent in 2027.
The Warsaw headquarters of the National Bank of Poland (NBP).
The Warsaw headquarters of the National Bank of Poland (NBP).Photo: Andrzej Barabasz, CC BY-SA 4.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

Meanwhile, inflation is projected to stand at 4.9 percent this year, followed by 3.4 percent in 2026 and 2.5 percent in 2027, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) said in its latest Inflation Report, which was released on Friday.

In its previous projection, the bank had expected the Polish economy to grow 3.4 percent in 2025 and 2.8 percent in 2026.

Sluggish GDP growth in CEE

According to the report, economic conditions in Central and Eastern Europe have weakened in recent months.

In the euro area, economic growth picked up slightly in the second half of 2024 but remained subdued, the report said.

Germany, Europe's largest economy and Poland’s No. 1 trading partner, saw a slight deceleration in GDP growth, it added.

"Global economic conditions continued to be adversely affected by the effects of the earlier tightening in financial conditions and the supply shocks of the previous years," the Polish central bank said.

Meanwhile, strong labour markets and rising real wages "support higher economic activity," it reported.

Inflation driven by energy prices

The report also highlighted that consumer price growth in Poland has significantly exceeded the NBP inflation target of 2.5 percent (±1 percentage point) in recent months.

It added that inflation has predominately been driven by rising electricity and natural gas prices.

(gs)

Source: IAR, PAP, nbp.pl