The report, titled Housing Market Analysis, Q4 2024, found that average prices in the primary market (new builds) rose by 10.9 percent year-on-year, while secondary market (resale) prices increased by 11.2 percent.
However, compared to the previous quarter, price growth in new builds slowed by 2.8 percentage points and in resales by 6.1 percentage points.
Regional differences in price trends
PIE analysts noted that Poland's housing market remains in line with broader trends in Central and Eastern Europe.
The report highlighted regional differences in price trends. In most provincial capitals, annual price increases remained in the single digits for both new and second-hand properties.
However, secondary market prices in Gdynia rose by more than 10 percent. In the primary market, Gdańsk, Wrocław and Warsaw recorded double-digit price increases, with the capital seeing a 13.4-percent rise in new builds and a 7.7-percent increase in resales.
Jędrzej Lubasiński, an analyst at PIE, predicted that housing price growth would continue to slow in the coming quarters, leading to single-digit increases across all cities.
He pointed out that interest rate cuts by Poland’s Monetary Policy Council are expected in the second half of 2025, meaning mortgage affordability is unlikely to improve rapidly.
However, rising wages could help sustain current levels of purchasing power.
Rental prices in Warsaw stable
The report also examined the rental market, noting that average rental prices in Poland’s seven largest cities increased by 1.5 percent year-on-year, a rate similar to previous quarters. On a quarterly basis, rental prices fell by 1 percent.
PIE found that in the most popular apartment size category (40-60 square meters), average rental prices were PLN 2,700 (USD 675) per month in six major cities outside Warsaw, while in the capital, the average was PLN 3,700 (USD 925).
Rental prices in Warsaw remained stable compared to the end of 2023.
Supply sharply down
One of the report’s key findings was a sharp decline in the number of available rental properties. The supply of rental apartments in the seven largest cities fell by 17 percent year-on-year in Q4 2024. In six of these cities, excluding Warsaw, availability dropped by 15 percent, while in the capital, the decline was 7 percent.
Prague, Brno more expensive than Warsaw
PIE compared Poland’s housing market to other countries in the region, noting that the highest annual price increases were recorded in Poland and the Czech Republic.
In the Polish Baltic city of Gdańsk, prices across both markets rose by an average of 14 percent, similar to increases in the Czech cities of Pilsen and Brno (13 percent).
Double-digit price rises were also observed in Warsaw, Bratislava, Prague and Liberec. Estonia had the slowest price growth in the region, with changes of around 1 percent in Tallinn and Tartu.
According to PIE analyst Tomasz Mądry, the Czech Republic had the highest property prices in Central and Eastern Europe in Q4 2024. Prague was the most expensive city, with an average price of EUR 5,600 per square meter.
Brno followed at EUR 4,600, while Warsaw was slightly cheaper at EUR 4,300. In Bratislava, the average price also exceeded EUR 4,000 per square meter.
Other large cities in the region saw prices ranging from EUR 2,200 to EUR 4,000 per square meter.
The Polish Economic Institute is a public economic think tank. It publishes reports, analyses and policy recommendations on key areas of the economy and social life in the country.
(rt/gs)
Source: PAP