The left-wing outlet oko.press has published an average of the last 30 days of polling of the Polish electorate, to present a "consolidated" picture of the dynamics of the Polish political scene post October elections.
Two interesting conclusions are tentatively drawn by the authors:
Law and Justice voters may be moving to Third Way
At the October 15 2023 elections, Law and Justice (PiS) received 35.38% of the popular vote while the centre-right Third Way coalition received 14.4%. The average for the last 30 days shows a shift of these figures to 31.1% and 16.6% respectively.
Third Way is a natural "new home" for moderate Law and Justice voters for two reasons: the leaders (Hołownia and Kosiniak-Kamysz) are committed Catholics and Kosiniak-Kamysz has been the most conciliatory of the ruling coalition leaders in addressing Law and Justice.
The ruling coalition has increased its popularity since the 2023 election
If elections took place with voting following the numbers from the consolidated survey data, the ruling coalition of the Civic Coalition (KO), Third Way and The Left would receive 266 out of the total 460 seats, close to the 3/5 majority needed to overturn the presidential veto and up from the 248 they obtained in the October elections.
The remainder of the OKO.PRESS analysis suggests that Poland may be experiencing a "pendulum swing" away from the right which has dominated at least since 2015. However, this is based on a "Polish" conception of right and left wing where religious and personal ethical values play a prominent part along with historical affiliations -rather than economic policies.
The current government is committed to maintaining the flagship social benefits programs ("500+" and now "800+")initiated by the previous government, a scale of social taxes that would place both governments firmly on the left in British or American terms.
Source: oko.press
pt
