Poland’s population falling faster than previously forecast, cities warn

Poland’s population is shrinking at a much faster pace than previously predicted, according to the latest data from the country's statistical office (GUS), prompting an urgent appeal to the government from local authorities.

Kościelna Street in Włodawa, eastern Poland. Local authorities warn that the country's population decline is putting increasing pressure on public services.

Photo: Adam Kołkowski, CC BY-SA 4.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

The Association of Polish Cities (ZMP) has warned that the deepening demographic crisis now threatens the basic functioning of the state, calling for swift adoption of a national development strategy for 2035 and immediate policy changes in education, housing and energy.

In a statement issued this week, the ZMP referred to new population projections published by GUS in November.

The association said the figures differ significantly from official forecasts currently used in public policy planning, arguing that they must be urgently taken into account by government ministries, regional authorities and local councils.

"Changes are happening so quickly that further delay in taking necessary action puts the fundamental interests of the state at risk," the statement said.

According to the ZMP, the demographic crisis is already undermining the viability of many municipalities, including small towns that are increasingly unable to carry out statutory public tasks.

The organisation also warned of a growing number of areas facing long-term marginalisation, intensified by migration trends and adverse spatial changes around cities.

The association criticised what it described as an inadequate response from the state to the scale of the demographic challenge.

The ZMP is urging the government to quickly adopt a national development strategy until 2035 and to work more closely with local and regional authorities on its implementation.

The association calls for restoring greater autonomy for local governments in shaping school networks, overhauling social policy responsibilities, introducing regulations to support affordable housing, and strengthening local energy independence through decentralised, local systems.

The association said that most of the strategy's goals can only be achieved through cooperation between the central government and local authorities.

"The latest data clearly show how urgent it is to reach such an agreement and begin concrete action," the ZMP said.

Poland's fertility rate has fallen sharply in recent years, reaching around 1.10 in 2024, according to the Statistics Poland office, well below the 2.1 level needed to replace generations.

Poland's population is projected to shrink by 6.6 million by 2060, falling to just under 31 million, GUS said earlier this year

(ał/gs)

Source: PAP