In their latest intelligence update, published on Thursday, the UK officials wrote: “In the Donbas, Russian forces continue to conduct artillery strikes across a broad front followed by, in some areas, probing assaults by small company and platoon-sized units.”
The British defence ministry added: “However, they have achieved no significant territorial advances over the last 72 hours and are in danger of losing any momentum built up following the capture of Lysychansk.”
This is because “the ageing vehicles, weapons, and Soviet-era tactics used by Russian forces do not lend themselves to quickly regaining or building momentum unless used in overwhelming mass – which Russia is currently unable to bring to bear,” according to the British analysts.
Peace talks remain unlikely
The UK defence ministry added that, despite talks on Wednesday between delegations from Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, and the United Nations on grain exports "and recent successfully negotiated prisoner exchanges, the prospects for wider talks to end the conflict remain low.”
Moscow orders regions to form volunteer battalions for Ukraine invasion
Meanwhile, the US-based Institute for the Study of War on Thursday reported that the Kremlin "likely ordered Russian ‘federal subjects’ (regions) to form volunteer battalions to participate in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, instead of declaring partial or full mobilisation in Russia.”
Citing pro-Kremlin journalists and bloggers, the think tank wrote that “volunteer mobilisation” has begun, with each of the 85 regions, including two in the occupied Crimean peninsula, ordered to “generate at least one volunteer battalion.”
“Russian media has already confirmed the creation or deployment of volunteer battalions in Kursk, Primorskyi Krai, Republic of Bashkortostan, Chuvashia Republic, Chechnya, Republic of Tatarstan, Moscow City, Perm, Nizhny Novgorod, and Orenburg Oblasts in late June and early July,” the US experts said.
In its latest analysis of the war in Ukraine, the ISW further reported that, according to Russian media, “regional officials recruit men up to 50 years old (or 60 for separate military specialties) for six-month contracts and offer salaries averaging 220,000 to 350,000 rubles per month (approximately $3,750 to $6,000).”
In addition, “separate regions offer an immediate enlistment bonus that averages 200,000 rubles (approximately $3,400) issued from the region‘s budget and social benefits for the servicemen and their families,” the think tank wrote.
Volunteer forces may number 34,000
According to the ISW, “Volunteer battalions could generate around 34,000 new servicemen by the end of August if each federal subject produces at least one military unit of 400 men.”
However, newly formed battalions "are currently departing to training grounds and will likely complete their month-long training by end of August but they will not be combat ready in such a short time period,” the think tank assessed.
Russian military criticised over 'command issues'
Meanwhile, Russian military bloggers on Tuesday slammed the Russian military “for sourcing Iranian UAVs to improve artillery targeting in Ukraine while failing to address the command issues that more severely limit the effectiveness of Russian artillery,” the ISW also reported.
For instance, a Russian Telegram channel wrote that “Russian requests and approval for artillery fire pass through a convoluted chain of command, resulting in a delay of several hours to several days between Russian ground forces requesting artillery fire, Russian targeting, and conducting the actual strikes,” according to the US experts.
The channel said that additional UAVs, while welcome, “do not solve the problems of overcentralised Russian command and overreliance on artillery in Ukraine,” as cited by the ISW.
Russia to forcibly transport Kherson schoolchildren to Crimea?
According to the US based think tank, “the Ukrainian Kherson Oblast Administration reported that the Russian-backed government in occupied Kherson Oblast will only open 20% of available schools for the school year starting on September 1, 2022, and that occupation authorities will transport Ukrainian children to the Nakimovsky Naval School in Sevastopol, Crimea for education instead of schools in occupied Kherson.”
The US experts commented: “While ISW cannot verify these claims, separating children from their parents (likely involuntarily) would allow Russian occupation authorities to threaten to harm the children if the parents do not cooperate.”
Ukraine fends off Russian attacks in Donbas
Meanwhile, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Thursday announced that Ukrainian units "repelled Russian attacks" in the Donbas region, namely "in the direction of Kurulka" to the northwest of Slovyansk; and "in the direction of Kodema and Vershyna," to the southeast of Bakhmut.
Meanwhile, hostilities continued near Verkhnyokamyanske to the east of Siversk, and Russian forces also “carried out an offensive in the direction of the settlement of Kamyanka,” near the city of Kramatorsk, “with partial success,” according to Ukraine’s military command.
Russian forces continued to shell Ukrainian positions and settlements along the contact line in the Donbas, and were also using air attacks, the Ukrainian General Staff reported.
Meanwhile in the northeastern Kharkiv Oblast, Russian units were "directing shelling against settlements to the north and northeast of Kharkiv City," according to Ukraine’s military command.
In the south, “the enemy is concentrating its efforts on preventing the offensive of units of the Defence Forces of Ukraine,” the Ukrainian General Staff reported.
It added that Russian forces “conducted shelling from barrel and rocket artillery and tanks along the contact line.”
Four Kalibr sea-based cruise missile carriers were being "kept ready for missile strikes,” Ukraine’s military command said.
Thursday is day 141 of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
(pm/gs)
Source: PAP, understandingwar.org, facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua