The UK analysts made the assessment in their latest intelligence update on the war in Ukraine, published on Twitter on Friday.
They wrote: “As shown by imagery, in recent weeks, Russian forces have continued to expend considerable effort to construct extensive defensive positions along the front line.”
According to the UK Ministry of Defence, Russian forces “have likely prioritised the northern sector around the town of Svatove” in Ukraine’s eastern Luhansk region.
The British experts said that "the Russian constructions follow traditional military plans for entrenchment, largely unchanged since the Second World War.”
They added: “Such constructions are likely to be vulnerable to modern, precision indirect strikes.”
According to the British defence ministry, “the construction of major defensive lines is further illustration of Russia’s reversion to positional warfare that has been largely abandoned by most modern Western militaries in recent decades.”
Possible Russian offensive in winter ‘unlikely to succeed’
Meanwhile, ”Russia may be setting conditions to conduct a new offensive against Ukraine— possibly against Kyiv—in winter 2023,” the Institute for the Study of War reported on Thursday night.
The US think tank assessed that “such an attack is extraordinarily unlikely to succeed.”
Moreover, “a Russian attack from Belarus is not imminent at this time,” the US experts added.
Putin’s goals in Ukraine ‘haven’t changed’
The ISW also assessed, “based on Kremlin statements and actions,” that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s objectives in Ukraine “have not changed.”
Namely, “Putin continues to pursue maximalist goals in Ukraine using multiple mechanisms intended to compel Ukrainians to negotiate on Russia’s terms and likely make preemptive concessions highly favorable to Russia,” the Washington-based think tank said.
It added that “this fundamental objective has underpinned the Kremlin’s various military, political, economic, and diplomatic efforts over the past 10 months in Ukraine.”
The US experts also noted that “Putin is using two simultaneous military efforts to pursue his ultimate objective of regaining control of Ukraine and securing major territorial concessions.”
They stated that “Russia’s current offensive pushes in Donetsk Oblast, particularly around Bakhmut and in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area and the ongoing campaign of massive missile strikes on critical Ukrainian infrastructure are intended to create realities on the ground that Russia will likely demand Ukraine recognize as the basis for negotiations.”
According to the ISW, “Russian troops have reinforced their efforts throughout Donetsk Oblast with freed-up combat power following the withdrawal from the west (right) bank of Kherson Oblast and have been consistently pursuing territorial objectives, albeit unsuccessfully.”
The US think tank repeated its suggestion that Putin “has given the order for Russian troops to complete the capture of the entirety of Donetsk Oblast.”
The ISW further stated that “current Russian offensive efforts around Bakhmut, Donetsk City, and in western Donetsk Oblast are part of the effort to execute that order.”
Russia launches another missile attack on Ukraine on Friday
Meanwhile, air raid sirens sounded throughout Ukraine on Friday morning, with officials saying Russia has launched another missile attack on the country, Polish state news agency PAP reported.
The rockets were fired from aircraft and from ships in the Black Sea, reporters were told.
Explosions rang out in the capital Kyiv; officials said this was the city’s air defences at work, according to PAP.
Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko has confirmed that blasts happened in the city, the Polish state news agency reported.
Vitalii Kim, Head of Military Administration in the southern Mykolaiv region, said that some 60 missiles were launched on Ukraine, the Ukrainska Pravda website reported.
"The first missiles are coming in. We expect about 60. They are already over the territory of Ukraine in the north," Kim said on the social messaging app Telegram, as quoted by Ukrainska Pravda.
Friday is day 296 of Russia’s war on Ukraine.
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Source: UK Ministry of Defence, understandingwar.org, PAP, pravda.com.ua
