Ed Arnold is Research Fellow for European Security at the Royal United Services Institute, the "world's oldest and the UK's leading" defence and security think tank. In an interview for the Times Radio, Arnold sums up and evaluates the current situation in Ukraine. Arnold was also an infantryman in the British Army.
Bakhmut - an unintended Ukrainian decoy?
In response to the news that the Russian army is preparing to shift from defensive to offensive operations around Bakhmut, Arnold said that while of course Ukraine should be concerned, Russia's continued focus on Bakhmut helps Ukraine split the Russian forces, keeping them away from the south.
"Bakhmut and the surrounding area is not strategically significant. It has become strategically significant because of how the Russians have approached it. They have put so much blood and treasure into trying to capture this relatively small city. [...] It's in the Russian mindset now - they can't give up Bakhmut."
Battle of Avdiivka - the new Russian "meat grinder"
One of Russia's strategic aims has been the capture of Avdiivka, perceived as a natural "gateway" to Donetsk in the currently Russian-occupied Donbas Region of eastern Ukraine.
Arnold confirms that Russia is repeating its Bakhmut strategy of "pressing" brigade after brigade despite suffering heavy casualties. He says that British intelligence reports that Russia has suffered its heaviest casualties to date in 2023 in the Battle of Avdiivka.
"Russia hasn't really got very far... the issue on the Russian side isn't so much the quantity as the quality. You see Russia essentially using "Wagner tactics": recruiting prisoners, not much training and then forming them around these Storm Z units. It's a pretty brutal tactic, you're sending waves of people forward, armed, sometimes not armed, then the Ukrainians open up on them, exposing their machine gun positions. Then you send in more experienced personnel..."
Arnold added that Ukraine is also limited because of the level of mining of the area - they are not able to push forward with larger numbers of forces. However, Arnold suggests that in the larger perspective this serves Ukraine, keeping Russian forces away from the south.
Crimea
"Ukrainian strategy has been quite explicit - they want to take back Crimea."
Arnold says Ukraine's strategy in the south is to isolate the land bridge and cut off Crimea from Russian support. However, essential to this effort is "managing Russian offences" in Bakhmut and Avdiivka and Arnold believes that Ukraine has developed a very good understanding of Russian mentality in battle.
Quality - equipment, training and morale
Arnold believes that both Ukraine and Russia can take advantage of the winter months for training and that Ukraine needs to upgrade its training cooperation with western countries, bringing that training much "closer to the frontline". Russia has the advantage and the potential advantage in possible future waves of conscription, however the ingredients of quality may be missing - training and morale, in particular, which may favour Ukraine if cooperation with western countries continues after crucial upcoming elections.
Has the Ukrainian counteroffensive come to an end?
Arnold dismissed the idea that the Ukrainian counteroffensive has run out of steam, interpreting this impression as the result of unrealistic expectations. Arnold suggested that keeping the Russians occupied and preventing them from "reconstituting" - in particular laying minefields which have slowed down Ukraine considerably - is progress. He also suggested significant progress has happened regarding Crimea, with Ukraine employing a "slowly boil the frog" strategy of making Russian control of Crimea slowly untenable.
Sources: Times Radio, Al Jazeera, X/ISW
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