Might the Russian army just "walk off the battlefield"? General Chapman says Putin may not be that far off from this scenario in an interview for Times Radio, offering more optimism for Ukraine than several recent strategic inputs.
In his interview, Major General Chip Chapman sees a few serious threats to Putin's grip on power, threats which might well be realised long before decisive military victory is achieved by either side.
Perhaps the point Chapman makes which will be most disturbing for the Russian dictator is his suggestion that "victory" may be more narrowly defined for Putin than for Zelensky. Putin's propaganda has so much emphasized Russia's right to the Ukrainian lands it has invaded (and not even fully conquered) that the loss of even one of these regions entire could signal the end of Putin's credibility for Russia.
The general suggested that if Ukraine, for example, regained Crimea - often mentioned as the most likely Russian-controlled area to fall (back) to Ukraine - this could be a major blow to Putin's domestic reputation, perhaps signalling the end of his rule.
Another threat Chapman perceives is battlefield fatigue and mutiny, something Russia has already witnessed with the insubordination of Prigozhin's Wagner Group in 2023:
"With 1200 losses per day," Chapman believes the possibility of Russian mutiny remains on the table.
Chapman thinks these scenarios are all the more likely in virtue of the fact that the most "obvious" conclusions to the war - decisive military victory for Russia or for Ukraine - are in his view very unlikely militarily. The battlefield has reached a stalemate at least for the foreseeable future. Small advances and retreats are to be the order of the day.
While Chapman foresees a continued war of attrition, he is far from the pessimist for Ukraine that, for example, the outspoken American political scientist John Mearsheimer has been. On the one hand Mearsheimer has blamed the US for encouraging NATO and EU ambitions among Russia's neighbours, thereby getting them into wars he believes they cannot win.
On the other hand he believes, in a "realist" (Ukraine would say "treacherous") spirit, that when push comes to shove, the US will throw Ukraine under the bus.
Sources: Times Radio, Radio Poland, X
pt