In its latest report on the Russian invasion of Ukraine, published on Wednesday, the US think tank wrote: “Russian authorities are likely setting information conditions to justify planned Russian retreats and significant territorial losses in Kherson Oblast.”
Russia planning ‘full retreat’ in Kherson region
The ISW reported that the commander of the Russian forces in Ukraine, Gen. Sergey Surovikin, said on television that the Russian military leadership had to make “difficult decisions” regarding the Kherson region, accusing Ukraine of “planning to strike civilian and residential infrastructure" in the region.
Meanwhile, Kherson Occupation Head Vladimir Saldo stated that his administration was evacuating the west bank of the Dnipro River in anticipation of a “large-scale” Ukrainian offensive, the US experts said.
According to the ISW, “Surovikin‘s and Saldo’s statements are likely attempts to set information conditions for a full Russian retreat across the Dnipro River, which would cede Kherson City and other significant territory in Kherson Oblast to advancing Ukrainian troops.”
This assessment was echoed by the UK Ministry of Defence in its latest intelligence update, published on Twitter on Thursday.
The British analysts said that Surovikin’s confirmation to Russian media that “a difficult situation has emerged” in the Kherson area and that civilians would be evacuated, was “highly unusual” and “likely indicates that the Russian authorities are seriously considering a major withdrawal of their forces from the area west of the Dnipro river.”
Russia planning false-flag strike on Ukrainian hydroelectric power plant?
Meanwhile, the ISW warned that Russian forces were setting information conditions to conduct a false-flag attack on the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant near Kherson.
Russian authorities are alleging a planned Ukrainian attack on the power station, likely to "set conditions for Russian forces to damage the dam and then blame Ukraine while using the resulting floods to cover their own retreat further south into Kherson Oblast," the US think tank said, as cited by the kyivndependent.com website.
Putin’s martial law is ‘legal theatre’
The ISW also said that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s October 19 declaration of martial law in the Russian-occupied Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk regions, and varying levels of “martial law readiness” across Russia, was “largely legal theatre meant to legitimise activities the Russian military needs to undertake or is already undertaking while creating a framework for future mobilisation and domestic restrictions."
Russia keeps up strikes on Ukraine’s infrastructure
In the early hours of Thursday, Russia struck an industrial company and energy infrastructure in the Kryvyi Rih district of Ukraine’s southeastern Dnipropetrovsk region, causing serious damage, kyivindependent.com reported, citing regional authorities.
According to preliminary information, there were no casualties, the website said.
During the night, Russian forces launched another attack on the southern Mykolaiv region with Iranian-made Shahed-136 “kamikaze drones,” 14 of which were shot down by Ukraine's military, National Guard and police forces, officials said.
Early on Thursday morning, Russia struck a school in the settlement of Komyshuvakha in Ukraine’s southeastern Zaporizhzhia region, kyivindependent.com reported, adding that there was no immediate data available on damage and casualties.
Meanwhile, internet connectivity fell to 81 percent of its normal level in the capital Kyiv after Ukraine's state-run grid operator Ukrenergo introduced the first of a series of rolling power blackouts in the Kyiv region late on Wednesday, following Russian attacks on energy infrastructure, news outlets reported.
Officials said the supply of electricity in Ukraine would be significantly limited from Thursday onward, with more regular blackouts likely if consumption was not reduced, kyivindependent.com reported.
Ukrainian 'offensive push in northwestern Kherson Oblast'
Over the past 24 hours, Russian forces continued to conduct limited assaults to recapture lost territory in Ukraine's northeastern Kharkiv region, according to the ISW.
Meanwhile, both Russian and Ukrainian troops reportedly continued to conduct assaults in the Kreminna-Svatove area in the eastern Luhansk region, the US think tank said.
At the same time, “Russian sources widely claimed that Ukrainian troops conducted another offensive push in northwestern Kherson Oblast” in southern Ukraine, the ISW added.
Thursday is day 239 of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
(pm/gs)
Source: PAP, UK Ministry of Defence, understandingwar.org, kyivindependent.com