The US-based think tank made the assessment in its latest report on the war in Ukraine, published on Monday night, Polish state news agency PAP reported.
Prigozhin 'continues to accrue power,' may 'pose threat to Putin’s rule'
According to the ISW, Prigozhin, whose Wagner Group of mercenaries is taking part in Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, “continues to accrue power and is setting up a military structure parallel to the Russian Armed Forces, which may come to pose a threat to Putin’s rule — at least within the information space.”
'Prigozhin-Girkin collaboration'
The US experts cited Russian bloggers as reporting that “Prigozhin is sponsoring the formation of a Wagner-based volunteer battalion recruited by a Russian war criminal and former Federal Security Service (FSB) officer Igor Girkin.”
The ISW said that “Girkin is an avid critic of the Russian higher military command and a prominent figure among the Russian ultra-nationalists who participated in the annexation of Crimea or the illegal Russian seizures of Ukrainian territory in Donbas in 2014.”
“The structure of the Russian Armed Forces has long prevented Girkin from forming his own volunteer battalion due to lack of supplies and other bureaucratic restrictions, while Prigozhin has the luxury to operate Wagner forces without the direct supervision of the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD),” the Washington-based think tank added, quoting Russian bloggers.
The ISW observed that these same bloggers said "the Prigozhin-Girkin collaboration is likely making a large nationalist constituency accessible to Prigozhin in support of his maximalist goals for the war in Ukraine."
'Prigozhin holds uniquely advantageous position'
According to the US experts, “Prigozhin holds a uniquely advantageous position within the Russian state structure and information space that allows him to expand his constituency in Russia more readily than the disgraced Russian higher military command.”
The ISW said that the Wagner Group boss “can freely promote himself and his forces while criticising Kremlin officials or the Russian Armed Force without fear of pushback.”
The US analysts pointed out that “Putin depends on Wagner forces in Bakhmut" in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region "and is likely attempting to appease Prigozhin despite the fact that Prigozhin is undermining the conventional Russian military.”
For instance, Prigozhin “sarcastically stated in an interview that he is constructing the ‘Wagner Line’ in an effort to make Russian Armed Forces that ‘hide behind Wagner’s backs’ feel safe,” the ISW wrote, adding that the Wagner boss “also frequently levies his critiques of the Russian military in interviews with Russian online publications and among Wagner-affiliated Telegram channels, which allow him to reach and interact with audiences inaccessible to the Russian MoD, which is restricted in its public statements and means of communication.”
Moreover, Prigozhin “benefits from holding no formal position of responsibility” as he is “not in command of any axis in Ukraine nor in charge of any major bureaucratic effort,” the US experts added.
Therefore, Progozhin “can critique those who are in positions of authority freely without fear that anyone can point to something he was specifically responsible for that he failed to achieve,” the ISW pointed out.
The US think tank also reported that Prigozhin seems to have “distanced himself from a fellow strongman, Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov.”
Russian army plagued by racism and bigotry, prone to ethnic conflicts
According to the ISW, “racism and bigotry continue to plague the Russian Armed Forces, increasing the likelihood of ethnic conflicts.”
The US experts said that Russian social media footage showed “a Russian officer beating a Muslim soldier for attempting to pray at a certain time.”
“While Russian milbloggers denied the authenticity of the footage, previous instances of violence along religious or ethnic lines, such as the shooting on a Belgorod Oblast training ground on October 15, indicate that such problems will intensify throughout time,” the Washington-based think tank predicted.
Russian forces setting up defensive positions near Kherson City
Meanwhile, in Ukraine’s occupied southern Kherson province, Russian forces were moving in two directions and setting up defensive positions near Kherson City, in anticipation of a Ukrainian counteroffensive to liberate the regional capital, Polish state news agency PAP reported on Tuesday, citing Ukraine’s General Staff.
In the eastern Donetsk region, Russian shelling killed seven civilians in the city of Bakhmut over the past 24 hours, the Ukrinform news agency reported.
Pavlo Kyrylenko, head of the Donetsk Regional Military Administration, wrote on Telegram: "On October 24, seven civilians of Donetsk region were killed by Russians - in Bakhmut. In addition, law enforcers found the bodies of the civilians who were killed during the occupation: two - in Drobysheve and one - in Stavky," as cited by Ukrinform.
Railway tracks blown up in western Russia
Meanwhile, partisans have blown up railway tracks in Russia’s western Bryansk region, near the Belarusian and Ukrainian border, the PAP news agency reported on Tuesday, citing the Centre for Strategic Communications of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
“The partisans are in action: an explosive device detonated in the Bryansk region. Railway tracks have been damaged,” Ukraine’s military officials wrote on Telegram, adding that the explosion would “disrupt the transport of military echelons from Russia to Belarus,” the PAP news agency reported.
There was also a powerful explosion in the city of Melitopol on Tuesday morning, while approximately seven explosions rang out in the village of Svitlodolynske in Melitopol district overnight, the Ukrainska Pravda website reported.
The explosions happened in the Russian-occupied part of Ukraine’s southeastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast, according to officials.
Referring to the overnight blasts, Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov said, as quoted by Ukrainska Pravda: “Locals counted approximately seven powerful explosions. They had seen smoke rising from near a railway bridge. We hope that the invaders have one less way to transport equipment now."
Tuesday is day 244 of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
(pm/gs)
Source: PAP, understandingwar.org, ukrinform.net, pravda.com.ua