The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) made the assessment in its latest report on the war in Ukraine, published on Sunday night.
The US experts wrote: “Ukrainian officials have indicated that Ukrainian forces plan to continue offensive operations over the coming winter to capitalize on recent battlefield successes and prevent Russian forces from regaining the battlefield initiative.”
The ISW cited Serhii Cherevatyi, spokesperson of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Eastern Group, as saying on December 4 that “frozen ground enables heavy wheeled and tracked vehicles to advance” and that “Ukrainian forces are preparing such vehicles for winter operations.”
Moreover, Cherevatyi stated that “low-quality mobilised recruits and Wagner Group personnel recruited from Russian prisoners are unprepared for combat in the winter,” the US analysts noted.
The ISW also quoted a November 20 statement by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence, which said that those who suggest the winter would pause hostilities “likely never sunbathed in January on the southern coast of Crimea.”
Ukrainian forces to continue to fight in the winter
These words suggest that “Ukrainian forces intend to continue counteroffensive operations over the coming winter that contribute toward the goal of retaking Crimea,” the Washington-based think tank added.
Additionally, Ukrainian Deputy Defence Minister Volodymyr Havrylov said on November 18 that “Ukrainian forces will continue to fight in the winter because any type of pause will allow Russian forces to reinforce their units and positions” the US experts pointed out.
The ISW added that prior statements by Ukrainian officials on ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive actions in the southern Kherson region “are further evidence that these official statements on winter counteroffensive actions are indicators of continuing counteroffensive operations.”
The US think tank assessed that “Ukraine’s ability to maintain the military initiative and continue the momentum of its current operational successes depends on Ukrainian forces continuing to conduct successive operations through the winter of 2022-2023.”
According to the ISW, “Weather conditions in winter 2023 likely will dictate a timeframe in which Ukraine can conduct maneuver warfare and continue its string of operational successes with minimal pauses that would increase the risks of Ukraine losing the initiative.”
Russian missiles strike infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia
Meanwhile, Russia has continued rocket attacks on Ukraine’s infrastructure, with industrial and energy facilities in the southeastern city of Zaporizhzhia coming under heavy bombardment on the night of December 4-5, Polish state news agency PAP reported.
Anatolii Kurtiev, Secretary of the Zaporizhzhia City Council, said on the social messaging app Telegram: “This time, the occupiers used their damn rockets to hit the city's industrial and energy infrastructure targets. A private company is known to have been damaged."
Kurtiev added that there was yet no information on casualties and that emergency services were working at the scene, the Ukrainska Pravda website reported.
Russian forces previously attacked the city of Zaporizhzhia on Thursday night, setting ablaze a building belonging to an infrastructure company, Ukrainska Pravda said.
Since Sunday morning, Russian forces have carried out seven rocket strikes and 32 air strikes, as well as launching “more than 50 MLRS attacks on the positions of our troops and settlements along the contact line,” Ukraine’s General Staff said on Monday morning, as cited by the PAP news agency.
Monday is day 285 of Russia’s war on Ukraine.
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Source: PAP, understandingwar.org, pravda.com.ua, facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua