Russian attack on Ukraine from Belarus unlikely but possible: report

Russia's new attack on Ukraine from Belarus is unlikely but still possible, according to the Institute for the Study of War.

Russia has used up much of its munitions in air and artillery strikes during the invasion of Ukraine, which is the likely reason why it negotiated arms shipments with Iran and North Korea, according to the Institute for the Study of War, a US think tank.

Photo: Wikimedia Commons

The US think tank made the assessment in its latest analysis of the war in Ukraine, published on Friday night, Polish state news agency PAP reported.

According to the US experts, “Moscow has been setting conditions for a new most dangerous course of action - a renewed invasion of northern Ukraine possibly aimed at Kyiv - since at least October 2022.”

The ISW said that "could be a Russian information operation or could reflect Russian President Vladimir Putin’s actual intentions,” adding that "currently available indicators are ambivalent."

However, "there remains no evidence that Moscow is actively preparing a strike force in Belarus," the ISW reported.

The Washington-based think tank cited Former Russian military commander Igor Girkin as saying that "the Russian military could not effectively conduct an offensive operation to capture territory, but that a diversionary operation to support a Russian offensive elsewhere in Ukraine would make military sense."

The US experts added that the Russian military may "attempt to conduct a diversionary attack on the ground or in the information space against northern Ukraine, likely in an effort to divert Ukrainian forces from defending in Donbas or in conjunction with an offensive in Luhansk or, less plausibly, elsewhere."

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Source: PAP