The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has said that "the Russian defense industrial base’s inability to address munitions shortages will likely hinder the ability of Russian forces to sustain offensive operations in eastern Ukraine in 2023."
The Washington-based think tank cited US and Ukrainian officials as saying this week that "Russia’s daily rate of artillery fire has decreased in some areas by 75 percent, a historic low since the start of the Russian full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022."
According to these officials, Russian forces may be rationing artillery shells as a result of dwindling supplies, or could be reassessing their tactics, the ISW said in its latest analysis of Russia's military campaign in Ukraine.
Serhiy Cherevaty, a spokesman for the Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces, said that Russian forces previously depleted their reserves of 122mm and 152mm artillery shells and other reserves over the summer of 2022 under an assumption that excessive artillery fire would lead to faster results, the ISW reported.
It quoted Cherevaty as saying that Russian forces must now transfer additional shells from rear areas in Russia and purchase additional munitions from foreign countries to counteract such shortages, resulting in a reduced rate of fire.
Cherevaty added that Ukrainian strikes against Russian ammunition depots and logistics have also inhibited Russia’s ability to unload munitions close to the frontlines, reducing the intensity of Russia’s artillery fire, according to the ISW.
It said Russian sources were also increasingly acknowledging that Russia’s ammunition and supply shortages were decisively impeding the ability of Russian forces to advance in Ukraine.
Thursday is day 323 of Russia’s war against Ukraine.
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Source: IAR, PAP, understandingwar.org
