PolskieRadio24.pl: What are your expectations before the Biden-Putin meeting, before NATO summit? What can be expected? What should happen there?
Maksym Khylko, Russian and Belarusian Studies Program Director at the Foreign Policy Council "Ukrainian Prism":
It is unlikely that any significant breakthroughs can be expected from the meeting between Biden and Putin. For Biden, this summit is rather a forced step, which Putin has achieved through threats and blackmail, including the movement of troops to the Ukrainian border and the threat of full-scale war, hacking attacks on critical infrastructure in the United States and partner countries, and other destructive activities in various regions. Putin needs this meeting to show both Russian citizens and the world capitals that he is still an influential world leader and that Russia is still an important geopolitical player.
Maksym Khylko It is unlikely that any significant breakthroughs can be expected from the meeting between Biden and Putin. For Biden, this summit is rather a forced step, which Putin has achieved through threats and blackmail, including the movement of troops to the Ukrainian border and the threat of full-scale war, hacking attacks on critical infrastructure in the United States and partner countries, and other destructive activities in various regions
It is likely that Biden and Putin will discuss the wide agenda, including strategic stability, nuclear weapons, pandemic, bilateral relations, Iran, North Korea, Syria, Ukraine, and Belarus among the other issues. Putin is also unlikely to miss the opportunity to speculate on a climate issue, which is important to Biden, and the Kremlin will try to draw dividends from it.
Biden would like Russia to become a bit more predictable and reduce its destructive activity in the world, for the Biden administration to get more opportunities to focus on other pressing issues in domestic policy and foreign policy, such as consequences of pandemic, climate change, assertive China etc.
But Putin thinks in terms of the previous century, he still hopes to return the world to spheres of influence, where the United States would recognize Moscow's right to limit the sovereignty of Eastern European countries. And it is unlikely that Biden will agree to a make deal with Putin behind the backs of the U.S. allies and partners, including Ukraine. In the end, this will not be perceived by the political establishment in the United States itself, and it will not make practical sense, because Ukrainians will not admit any deal on Ukraine made without their participation and consent.
What do you think are the plans of Lukashenka and Putin? They have been working very closely together.
Maksym Khylko, Russian and Belarusian Studies Program Director at the Foreign Policy Council "Ukrainian Prism":
Putin uses the political crisis in Belarus to increase Russian influence there and promote Russia's actual absorption of Belarus.
This is not necessarily about an open accession of Belarus to Russia. The signing of integration plans within the Union State of Russia and Belarus will in fact integrate all the main spheres of life of Belarus with Russia, and Moscow will management of all processes in economy, defense, education, culture, foreign policy etc.
Belarus can formally retain the attributes of statehood – it would even be advantageous for Moscow to retain an additional vote in the UN and the OSCE – but de facto Belarus will become a Russian province.
Maksym Khylko This is not necessarily about an open accession of Belarus to Russia. The signing of integration plans within the Union State of Russia and Belarus will in fact integrate all the main spheres of life of Belarus with Russia, and Moscow will management of all processes in economy, defense, education, culture, foreign policy etc.
Belarus can formally retain the attributes of statehood – it would even be advantageous for Moscow to retain an additional vote in the UN and the OSCE – but de facto Belarus will become a Russian province.
Russia's de facto absorption of Belarus will pose serious security threats, primarily to neighboring Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania and Latvia, but also to NATO and the EU as a whole. Moscow and Minsk have already agreed to open a joint training military center in Belarus, to strengthen cooperation between border agencies and special services, and to increase activity within the framework of the Regional Group of Troops of Belarus and Russia. The strengthening of Russia's military presence in Belarus will increase political pressure on neighboring countries due to threats of the use of force. Besides, if Russian border guards appear at Belarus' borders with Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania and Latvia, the risks of provocations will increase, which can quickly escalate. The EU and NATO should be clearly aware of the threats posed by the increasing presence of Russian military and special services in Belarus and take appropriate measures to prevent a significant deterioration in the security situation in the region before it is too late.
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Ed. Agnieszka Marcela Kamińska, PolskieRadio24.pl
