Agnieszka Marcela Kamińska, PolskieRadio24.pl: What are your expectations before the Biden-Putin meeting? What can be expected? And what should happen there?
Marcel H. Van Herpen, security expert specializing in Russia, Eastern Europe, and the post-Soviet states: I think we should have low-key expectations. What Biden wants in fact is to have a channel of communication with Russia – with Putin, with the Kremlin.
Marcel H. Van Herpen I do not think they will talk a lot about Ukraine nor about Belarus. Putin will say that Belarus is not his problem, that this is a problem of Belarusians. He will say as well that Ukraine is not his problem.
I do not think they will talk a lot about Ukraine nor about Belarus. Putin will say that Belarus is not his problem, that this is a problem of Belarusians.
He will say as well that Ukraine is not his problem as there are no Russians involved, which is of course his "interpretation"
I think they will talk about climate change, perhaps about nuclear weapons, Iran, etc. These are problems on which they can work together.
We should not have high expectations. It is just a channel of communication that is opening up.
Biden’s administration officials informed that Belarus will be one of the topics of this summit. But you suppose that as a result it will not work - as Putin will tell that "he is not involved", which of course it is not true?
It will not work, as Putin will insist that Belarus "is not his problem", but a problem of Belarusians.
Probably he would like to make this the tactics for this meeting?
I think so. I think we should have minimal expectations. We will then not be disappointed.
As far as developments in Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine are concerned, can one think about any possible scenarios, especially after the dramatic events in Minsk? Do you think we could expect something new?
I do not expect anything special as far as the Biden-Putin meeting is concerned for the reasons I mentioned.
As far as Ukraine is concerned, we have had recently ammassment of Russian troops at the border of the Ukraine. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned that with the Zapad 2021 exercises coming up in September, it is possible that the threat of a Russian invasion will come back again.
Ukraine has a real problem now, we should be very much worried about the situation.
Again, I do not think Putin will be willing to talk about Ukraine.
This time he will not state that there are no Russians in the Crimea, as he stated about the green people… But he will try to avoid this topic.
As far as Belarus is concerned, what scenarios can we expect? The situation there is worsening.
In Belarus, cruel repressions are now taking place. Lukashenka will continue with repressions. We can see what happened with Raman Pratasevich.
The problem now is that Svyatlana Tsikhanouskaya is also in danger. She is abroad, but as we can see, the hands of Lukashenka reach very far at this moment.
I think that Putin will stand by Lukashenka, at the same time keeping some distance.
Marcel H. Van Herpen The problem now is that Svyatlana Tsikhanouskaya is also in danger. She is abroad, but as we can see, the hands of Lukashenka reach very far at this moment.
Lukashenka and Putin are meeting regularly in Sochi. We do not have much information about their plans, but we do know they are talking about further integration.
Putin’s long term objective is to incorporate Belarus into the Russian Federation. It is not a secret.
He hopes that the Union State of Russia and Belarus is only a starting point to integrate Belarus into the Russian Federation, economically and politically, step by step.
Putin, in the beginning of 2000s, in fact offered Lukashenka to make Belarus a part of Russia. It was then not accepted by Lukashenka.
Marcel H. Van Herpen Putin’s long term objective is to incorporate Belarus into the Russian Federation. It is not a secret. He hopes that the Union State of Russia and Belarus is only a starting point to integrate Belarus into the Russian Federation, economically and politically, step by step.
These are the long term plans for Putin and Lukashenka?
It is a bit complicated. For Putin Lukashenka is a bit a too independent person. Lukashenka wanted to become president of Russia, before Putin came to power. They do not like each other, even if they play hockey together
Anyway, now they do not have any other choice. It seems they try to build a stronger relation.
The cooperation takes place. The Foreign Intelligence Service of the Russian Federation (The SVR) head has visited Belarus and met with the head of the Belarusian KGB. It is quite sure that these two organizations work quite closely together. It concerns repression as well.
We can expect more repression as a result. It will go on.
Europe should protect Belarusians who are outside Belarus and put pressure on Lukashenka to change his policies.
For the moment I think Lukashenka will not stop his attacks on the opposition, he is being helped by Putin and by the Russian SVR.
What should be done? We have now more interest in Belarus, we begin to apply sanctions… What else can be done?
We can apply economic and personal sanctions, deny overflight rights for the Belarusian air company.
We should also offer positive solutions for democratic movement, for the time when Belarus will become a democratic country. The EU already has offered 3 bln euros for democratic government. And Putin has recently promised Lukashenka only 500 mln dollars.
Putin already has financial problems, and now he has to pay for Lukashenka.
The problem is that the Union State of Russia and Belarus is also a member of The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), the military organization of the post-Soviet states, controlled by Moscow.
That means that Russia has already a military presence in Belarus. That makes the situation worse. It is very difficult situation for Belarus and for the West.
Another problem is the lack of unity within the European Union and the lack of military means of the EU.
There are some proposals that the EU should start a system of monitoring the situation in Belarus very closely, e.g. by creating the post of the high level representative to monitor the situation on Belarus „24/7”, all the time. It could be a tool to implement a proper policy, to react swiftly and properly.
The reporters and activists are imprisoned in Belarus. It is very important to monitor the situation to know what is happening. We need the monitoring.
Have you reflected why Lukashenka decided to hijack the plan with this young man, the blogger Raman Pratasyevich?
I think his young man is someone, who is very important in the eyes of Lukashenka. I think it is his signal to all the people abroad that they could be hijacked to Belarus. It is an intimidating measure.
Inside Belarus, he applies now a very heavy repression. He wants to extend this repression also outside Belarus in Poland and Lithuania.
It is important to pay attention to their safety.
Could I ask what do you think about the problem with NS2? I am very much surprised by the recent developments.
The US administration seemed to be very much against NS2, and now it seems that Biden has changed his position and that he is not willing to sanction NS2.
It is a real change and a present for Mr Putin and German government before the meeting in Geneva.
It is not a positive change. And I do not think Biden could come back to his previous stand.
The construction of NS2 it is a great loss for the Ukraine. The pipeline is almost ready. Germany and Putin think that they won the game. And German ex-chancellor Mr Schroeder too.
It is a great challenge for the regional security. It shows that the Kremlin has better relations with Germany than with Central Europe.
For Germany, it is positive news. As far as Biden is concerned, it seems that the real strategic challenge for him is China, not Russia.
He does not want to have a reset with Russia, as Obama did, but he wants to have regular and normal communication channels.
That means he is ready to bring some gifts for Putin. That is not good news.
We should remind that Ukraine was promised a Membership Action Plan for NATO in 2008. And until today Kiev is not in NATO. Now it seems it is not even on the American agenda, while it was there before.
Marcel H. Van Herpen We should remind that Ukraine was promised a Membership Action Plan for NATO in 2008. And until today Kiev is not in NATO. Now it seems it is not even on the American agenda, while it was there before. The same problem we have we Georgia. It was promised a Membership Action Plan in 2008. And it is still outside NATO
Let’s hope it will change. NATO states the open door policy is still in place and that sovereign states have the right to be part of any Alliance they want. Russia cannot arbitrarily include sovereign states into its „zone of influence” which would be in fact reconstructing the Soviet Union.
This is a competition of principles that should govern our civilisation.
The same problem we have we Georgia. It was promised a Membership Action Plan in 2008. And it is still outside NATO.
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Marcel H. Van Herpen is a security expert specializing in Russia, Eastern Europe, and the post-Soviet states. He is the author of three books on Putin’s Russia, which were translated in different languages, and is a frequent media contributor
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