"One of the components of the threat related to Belarus is the border crisis, another is the deployment of Russian military forces in Belarus poised to support an attack on Ukraine. For example, as part of current Russian-Belarussian combined exercises. And we also see the development of the Union State of Russia and Belarus," commented Col. (ret.) Ray Wojcik, former US attaché in Poland.
Ray Wojcik underlined the gravity of the situation stating: "Lukashenka has concluded, he needs Putin more than ever to remain in power, after strong anti-regime protests, followed rigged elections in 2020. An unusual outlier for his position against Russia since 2014, Lukashenka now recognizes as "legitimate," Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea. More recently, Lukashenka stated, he is ready to give full support to a new Russian attack on Ukraine, and is welcoming basing of Russian troops in Belarus, including very close to the border with Poland and Lithuania."
Col. Ray Wojcik believes that the West should implement some sanctions immediately, to send a strong message to Putin, that the U.S. and West are not going to let Russia call all the shots, in an attempt to redefine the security order of Europe. As he stated, sanctioning Nord Stream 2 now, is a start in trying to regain the initiative which Russia continues with its aggressive actions, to maintain, keeping the West continuously off balance, always in a reaction mode. He stressed that Russia needs to know now, that the West is not standing for the occupation of Belarus and encirclement of Ukraine, and more threats of attack against Ukrainian sovereignty.
"Sanction Nord Stream 2 Now: this is the deterrent Russia needs to see and feel," he added.
The challenges related to Belarus are growing
"You have to bear in mind that even if Vladimir Putin steps back from Ukraine, we can also see how the Union State of Russia and Belarus becomes a reality. It looks worse day by the day that soon Poland, and Lithuania, will each be facing two borders, of which behind these, are unprecedented Russian military capabilities, not seen in 30 years," emphasized our interlocutor.
More in an interview.
PolskieRadio24.pl: Russia is organizing a second round of strategic exercises in Belarus in a few months - following recent Zapad 2021 exercises, and now we have a test of the Union State's combat readiness, and an active phase of the Russian exercises Allied Resolve. At the same time, we see the "creeping integration" of Belarus with Russia, subjugating Belarus in military aspects etc. All this is happening against the will of the citizens of Belarus. How do you perceive this situation?
Col. Ray Wojcik, CEPA, former US attaché in Poland: CEPA and many other think tanks have been talking about this for years. The issue of Belarus is a huge challenge. Even if we did not face serious threats to Ukraine at present, we would still have a growing problem with increasing Russian military presence in Belarus.
It is about the creation of the Union State of Russia and Belarus and other forms of Belarus' integration with Russia, or the possible creeping annexation. Some speculate, this has already "de facto," occurred.
We have watched Lukashenka's actions in recent months. The actions taken by Lukashenka with the participation of Russia on the borders of Belarus, Poland, Lithuania and Latvia show the scale of the threat and how such crises involve even closer integration of Russian and Belarussian militaries. We see clearly that Minsk - with the approval and participation of Moscow - continues aggressive measures against its neighbors, including Poland.
It can be noted here that the European Union and Western countries laud its members states on the frontlines in the region, as strongly defending EU and NATO borders. Thus far, the EU has not provided adequate support to respond to the crisis. Some allies, however, are responding - Estonia and Great Britain - have sent soldiers, e.g. engineers, on advisory missions. The UK in the last few days, has committed almost 400 additional troops to Poland, while America has sent an additional 1,700 to join the almost 5,000 American soldiers present in Poland on a continuous basis.
One of the components of the threat is therefore the border crisis, the other, of course, is the deployment of Russian military forces in Belarus, for example as part of Russian-Belarussian exercises.
Russia and Belarus have had fully integrated air defense for years. Basically, the Russians manage the Belarusian air defense system. You can see the seizure and integration of other capabilities of the Belarusian army by Russia, including ground forces, artillery and Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance ISR capabilities. The more Russian combat forces are based close to Poland’s and Lithuania’s borders, in Belarus, the stronger is Russia’s combat posture adjacent to NATO’s border.
In such positions, Russia can better project Anti Access Area Denial (A2AD) threats against NATO allies.
This is a big threat. It must be borne in mind that even if Vladimir Putin de-escalates with Ukraine , we can still see the reality of the Union State and including yet another "excuse" for Putin to remain in power in perpetuity.
It doesn't look good. Even if we manage to move the threat away from Ukraine, we will have a serious problem with Belarus.
Some argue that sanctions should be prepared in case the Kremlin decides to integrate Belarus into its structures against the will of its citizens. The Union State is a form of forced integration or even annexation, with no regard to the will of the Belarusian people. It is based on the arbitrary arrangements of the authoritarian and aggressive leaders of Belarus and Russia.
Of course, a sanctions package for various forms of "integration" of a Union State or various forms of annexation, should be prepared urgently. Again, a challenge for the West, is that Putin keeps us off balance. Most are focused on the encirclement of Ukraine, missing other actions, and signals he is sending. NATO as far as I can tell, remains only at the first level of "warning" posture about the threat. The EU has not been able to speak with one voice on Ukraine, and as I already mentioned, has out-sourced the response to an EU border crisis, to the affected EU member states Poland, Lithuania and Latvia.
We are in a situation that requires a higher Crisis Response level at NATO including contingency planning, and readying of NATO’s Very High Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF) and the full NATO Response Force (NRF) for deployment to bolster East Flank allies, as added deterrents. These organizations exist and are on standby. It is time to utilize them. This crisis also demonstrates that NATO has a problem with Agility. We should be responding across the Diplomatic Military, Information, and Economic (known as the DIME), domains, with various tools in the toolbox. Certainly, deployment of the VJTF, and NRF are needed.
Of course, we should be implementing sanctions, before Putin takes additional steps - not after, and certainly not waiting until he has totally closed all gaps in Ukraine’s encirclement. We can see what he’s doing now in the Black Sea, with Maritime power deployments, including ships capable of amphibious operations. Thus, it makes more sense to impose sanctions now. Much stronger sanctions - than are already in place - should be imposed on Russia for what it is doing, to threaten Ukraine, and NATO allies and partners in the region.
A close review of the last 8 years reveals that the West, is thus far, unable to regain the initiative - that the measures we have taken, are not enough. Here, we have the opportunity to take initiative. In each case until now, Putin initiates a new crisis - he expands the spectrum of challenges including hybrid, diplomatic charades, and threatening conventional and even nuclear forces attack – he basically operates often with impunity, across the "DIME.” So, we see now unchecked, Putin’s deployment of troops to Belarus, and almost 360 degrees, around Ukraine. And the Kremlin keeps us guessing about what will "happen next."
We should take the initiative. This means: a blow that will hurt Putin, the imposition of appropriate sanctions is the right start – it’s some "shock and awe,” without kineticmilitary engagement. Such a step would be a deterrent to further aggression.
It is good that the EU, and NATO are discussing ways to support Ukraine, and east flank allies. It is great that several countries, the USA, Germany, France, UK, Poland, and others, are active on the diplomatic front. It’s great there are now multiple shipments of needed lethal military equipment to Ukraine, coming from the USA, UK, Poland, Czech Republic, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and others. It’s great a NATO Maritime Group is in the Baltic Sea, but the same should be in the Black Sea.
In spite of Western actions, it seem as if the West thus far, is playing checkers, while Putin is playing chess. He’s daily exploiting wedges he has made, or creating new ones, in our alliance. We’ve seen Western governments make major errors, in strategic messaging. From the USA, with the President, giving an accidental "green light" to a "minor Russian incursion into Ukraine," to Germany’s unclear support in shutting down (or not) the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, the Croatian president’s comments, about this is not "Croatia’s business," and finally, the Chief of the German Navy being fired (resigned technically), for misspeaking on the status of Crimea.
If there is an appearance of hesitation, or non-cohesion in the West, this is exactly what Putin seeks to exploit. What has occurred, is not just an appearance, but actual, real hesitation and non-cohesion. Cohesion is improving, in the macro sense, but much coordination is lacking. Witness how French President Macron was just "played” by Moscow, believing he had some sort of commitment from Putin on no "further escalation." It appears, Russia has committed to nothing, underlining that Macron, is not the right "phone number" for Moscow (i.e., too low a level), even though Macron expended much political capital, in his recent 5-hour meeting with Putin. Macron’s discussions about European autonomy in the midst of a major security crisis, are also unhelpful, creating even more opportunities for the Kremlin to divide the West.
What should we think about the various Russian military acts at Sea, in various places around the world? Is it to distract us, or signal that Russia can do a lot of damage, or is Russia just spying in this way? These incidents are aggressive. But what is their purpose?
This is part of Russia's aggressive posture and toolkit. The Kremlin would like every country to hide under the bed in fear. It would please Putin to no end, for the West to worry that Putin can reach out and touch them, anywhere, at any time. And, that Russia has significant firepower on its ships, including long range Kalibr missile systems, reportedly with ranges up to 2,500 kilometers. And, Russia has heated up its brazen rhetoric about nuclear readiness. Russia has moved a nuclear exercise up on the calendar, adding another dilemma, for NATO to worry about, along with the multiple crises, Putin has initiated.
On the Seas, Russia has dominance in the Black Sea, it truly has become a "Russian lake,” and Russia is moving additional ships into the Black Sea to reinforce its Black Sea fleet, now. Currently, other than NATO Black Sea littoral nations, there is no NATO Naval presence in the Black Sea to deter Putin. Russia is now more poised than ever, to launch a joint Air, Ground and Maritime attack into the Sea of Azov, seizing the Port of Mariupol, and freezing a vital Ukrainian export hub.
In the Baltic Sea region, Russia conducts snap exercises – as Russia is currently doing in the Black Sea, announcing "closure” of huge areas for live fire exercise. In the midst of the Ukraine crisis, Russia recently initiated a major Baltic Sea exercise, with 20 warships. Russia’s actions in the Baltic Sea region are meant to demonstrate capabilities, threaten allies, and intimidate in particular, Finland and Sweden, from pursing accession to NATO. Both nations are closer than ever, to pursuing NATO membership, and that does not make Putin very happy.
*** Interview with COL (ret). Ray Wojcik, former US attaché in Poland***
Agnieszka Marcela Kamińska, PolskieRadio24.pl
