In a recent interview with Polish state news agency PAP, Bogusz said that the growing social and political divergence between Taiwan and China was inching the region towards an inevitable crisis.
"Any crisis in East Asia will also give Moscow the opportunity to take aggressive actions in Europe," Bogusz said, adding that this could occur either through coordination with Beijing or due to opportunistic motives.
The implications of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait would be profound, extending well beyond the immediate region, according to Bogusz.
"The crisis around Taiwan not only poses a threat to the global economy by disrupting the semiconductor supply chain, but will also potentially halt maritime freight in the region, which accounts for over half of the world's cargo traffic," Bogusz emphasized.
In his analyses, Bogusz explores the historical and socio-political dimensions of the Taiwan dispute from the perspectives of Taiwan, China and the United States.
The issue is of strategic importance, he says, as Beijing aims to "reunify China" and gain control over Taiwan, while the United States views the survival of democratic Taiwan as critical to its position in the Indo-Pacific and globally.
The Polish analyst points out that despite the escalating tensions, economic interdependence remains a key stabilizing factor. Taiwan's role as a major supplier of semiconductors to China means that any attack on the island could severely impact these industries.
Bogusz outlines various potential scenarios for a conflict in the Taiwan Strait, ranging from an air and sea blockade to gradual attacks on smaller islands or even a swift invasion to challenge the US response.
He suggests that a hybrid scenario, combining elements of these strategies, is most likely. This could involve an economic blockade and attempts at internal destabilization within Taiwan, influenced by both internal and international contexts.
(jh/gs)
Source: PAP
