"I never even imagined that the U.S. could behave this way," the academic admitted in an interview with the Polish news outlet Onet.pl.
Fukuyama cautions on NATO's future and U.S. isolationism under Trump
Francis Fukuyama believes that Trump’s questioning of NATO’s importance and the potential weakening of Article 5 guarantees raise concerns about the reliability of the U.S. as an ally. This may push Poland and other NATO eastern flank countries to invest in independent defense capabilities.
“We’ve never had a president who questioned the need for NATO before. However, I think Trump will face practical challenges in acting on that notion,” Fukuyama noted.
While the full-scale invasion of Ukraine has significantly weakened Russia, Europe must prepare for a scenario of increased U.S. isolationism.
“NATO derives its strength from Article 5 guarantees. Weakening it doesn’t require treaty changes—Trump could simply say, ‘If an ally hasn’t spent 5% of GDP on defense, we won’t help in the event of a Russian attack.’ That’s what NATO members should fear,” he warned.
Expert warns Europe to bolster defense spending amid U.S. isolationism under Trump
Fukuyama argues that the EU cannot create a self-sufficient defense system without U.S. support. However, he emphasizes the need to increase military spending, particularly by Poland and the Baltic states, as the 2% GDP benchmark is too low.
“Europe’s defense industry has serious weaknesses—it simply doesn’t produce enough missiles, aircraft, ammunition, or artillery shells. A significant overhaul of these capabilities is essential. That’s what I would prioritize if I were European,” he concluded.
Francis Fukuyama, a Chicago-born American political scientist and economist of Japanese descent, will visit Poland in 2025 as a guest of the IMPACT'25 conference, which will take place in Poznań, western Poland, on May 14-15.
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Source: Onet/X/@ImpactCEE
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