Jacek Kotłowski, director of the central bank’s Department of Economic Analysis and Research, told Polish Radio that the conflict is affecting global commodity markets. However, its overall impact on Poland’s inflation outlook should remain limited.
"For now, the main effect of the war is higher fuel prices," Kotłowski said, adding that international transport costs have also risen. However, he noted that consumers may not fully feel those increases because retail prices depend on multiple factors.
Fuel prices in Poland have risen sharply in recent days. The price of 95-octane petrol increased by about 0.52 zloty per liter, while diesel rose by roughly 1 zloty per liter, pushing petrol prices above 6 zloty per liter.
Urszula Cieślak, a fuel market analyst at BM Reflex, said the increases may continue, speaking in an interview with Polskie Radio 24.
Financial markets analyst Marek Zuber added that the conflict has so far had a limited impact on Poland’s economy overall, although energy commodities such as oil and gas have become significantly more expensive.
As he said in an interview with Polish Radio, only a few sectors are currently feeling the impact of higher fuel prices.
Zuber added that the sharp rise in gas prices was linked to Qatar’s decision to suspend gas production. However, he noted that Poland has substantial gas reserves and diversified supply routes, which should help ensure a stable supply of the fuel.
Energy Minister Miłosz Motyka said on Friday that Poland would not face fuel shortages despite tensions in the Middle East. He said the country’s fuel storage facilities are currently about half full.
According to the latest projections from the National Bank of Poland, annual inflation in Poland is expected to average around 2.5% through the end of 2028.
(aj)
SOURCE: IAR