On Monday, expert on Iran from Krakow's Jagiellonian University, Marcin Krzyżanowski, gave an interview to RMF24.
Krzyżanowski explained the new agreement (reported on earlier, here) between Iran and Russia in terms of mutual desperation. Russia had not anticipated the need to replenish its military hardware so quickly, its experts having forecast an easy victory over Ukraine. Iranian drones are, according to Krzyżanowski, relatively cheap and "effective".
On the other hand, Iran, due to sanctions and COVID, is desperate for investment, especially in hard currency.
Krzyżanowski continues:
"Russian generals... have discovered that the Ukrainian defence is much more determined than they had expected. (...) They now see the need to wear down Ukrainian infrastructure and the Ukrainian people, and it seems that Iranian drones are ideally suited to these goals."
Asked whether the technology can be transferred to Russia and the drones built there within the 3 months that Russia has announced, Krzyżanowski replied that it seems optimistic but that Iran has experience exporting its drone technology to Tajikistan where an Iranian drone plant is already in operation.
However, Krzyżanowski suggested that this arms deal is unlikely to change the course of the war. Although there is likely to be an increase in civilian loss of life in particular, if Ukraine and its partners prepare by increasing air defence, even a drone attack on a "massive scale" could be fought off.
Sources: RMF24, Radio Poland
pt
