Lukashenko said on Tuesday that the leader of Russia's 24-hour mutiny, Yevgeny Prigozhin, had arrived in Belarus, days after his Wagner mercenary group's revolt came to an end about 200 km south of Moscow, news outlets reported.
"Lukashenko likely seeks to use the Wagner Group in Belarus to buy maneuvering space to balance against the Kremlin campaign to absorb Belarus via the Union State," the Washington-based think tank said in its latest analysis of Russia's military campaign in Ukraine.
It observed that Lukashenko appeared to be seeking to "closely control any Wagner Group forces that move into Belarus."
Lukashenko announced on Tuesday that Belarus had "received an unspecified number of Russian nuclear weapons on a previous date," according to the ISW, "a development that Lukashenko may also use to balance against the Kremlin’s campaign to absorb Belarus via the Union State."
The US think tank assessed that "the ongoing Putin-Lukashenko-Prigozhin powerplay is not yet over and will continue to have short-term and long-term consequences that may benefit Ukraine."
Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, launching the largest military campaign in Europe since World War II.
Wednesday is day 490 of Russia’s war on Ukraine.
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Source: PAP, understandingwar.org, bbc.com, ukrinform.net