UK defence officials made the assessment in their latest intelligence update on the war in Ukraine, published on Friday.
The British Ministry of Defence noted that at the Russia-Africa Conference in St. Petersburg on Wednesday, 17 of the continent’s leaders were in attendance, compared with 43 at the previous meeting.
It came ten days after Moscow withdrew from the Black Sea Grain Initiative, UK officials noted.
The Black Sea Grain Initiative was brokered by the UN and Turkey last summer to combat a global food crisis worsened by Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the Reuters news agency reported.
Under the Black Sea grain deal, Ukraine had been able to export 30 million tonnes of its grain to Africa, delivering essential nutrition to such countries as Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia and Sudan, the British Ministry of Defence said.
It added that Russia’s blockade of Ukraine had disrupted these supplies, as well as causing grain prices to rise.
The UK Ministry of Defence assessed: “The impact of the war in Ukraine will almost certainly compound food insecurity across Africa for at least the next two years.”
On Monday, the United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres urged Russia to resume the Black Sea Grain Initiative.
The UN chief said: “I call on the Russian Federation to return to the implementation of the Black Sea Initiative.”
Guterres warned: "With the termination of the Black Sea Initiative, the most vulnerable will pay the highest price.”
He said that global wheat and corn prices were already starting to rise.
The UN chief stated: "When food prices rise, everybody pays for it. This is especially devastating for vulnerable countries struggling to feed their people."
On Wednesday, NATO announced it was stepping up “surveillance and reconnaissance in the Black Sea region, including with maritime patrol aircraft and drones” to counter Russia’s threats to civilian ships and its attacks on Ukraine’s ports, launched after Moscow quit the Black Sea Grain Initiative.
Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, launching the largest military campaign in Europe since World War II.
Friday is day 520 of Russia’s war on Ukraine.
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Source: PAP, Reuters, UK Ministry of Defence