Speaking to journalists in comments published Sunday, Zelenskyy said Kyiv believes Moscow is preparing to expand its military to sustain the war effort against Ukraine, with the window immediately after the Sept. 18-20 State Duma elections seen as the likely trigger point.
He has previously put the potential figure as high as 500,000, based on Ukrainian intelligence pointing to an active call-up phase beginning this autumn.
The Kremlin has not confirmed any such decision, and Russian officials have rejected the claims outright. Duma defense committee chairman Andrei Kartapolov called the mobilization warnings an invention of Zelenskyy's, echoing earlier denials from the Kremlin.
Behind the speculation is a recruitment problem: Russia's contract-soldier system, underpinned by large cash bonuses, has slowed sharply, with daily sign-ups falling from around 1,200 in 2025 to about 900 this year, according to the cited data. Ukrainian and Western analysts believe battlefield losses are now outstripping new recruitment, tightening pressure on Moscow to sustain its offensive tempo.
Zelenskyy tied the potential mobilization to longer-term Kremlin ambitions, saying Russia may need several hundred thousand more troops by 2027 as it pushes to capture the entire Donetsk region. Ukrainian assessments suggest fresh manpower would go primarily toward reinforcing eastern front-line units and maintaining pressure on Ukrainian defenses.
Analysts caution that a larger troop pool would not necessarily translate into a stronger fighting force. Military analyst Viktor Kevliuk said the core obstacles — arming, training and safely transporting new soldiers to the front — would remain regardless of how many people are called up.
A mobilization would also carry steep financial costs. One analysis cited put the price of mobilizing 300,000 troops at more than RUB 700 billion (EUR 7.2 billion) a year, a figure that could top RUB 1 trillion (EUR 10.3 billion) once benefits and bonuses are factored in — an added strain on a state budget already stretched by contract-soldier pay.
Whether the Kremlin ultimately moves forward remains uncertain, Zelenskyy said, but he maintained that preparations for the scenario are underway, with the weeks after the September vote likely to prove decisive.
(jh)
Source: Polish Radio