The ISW made the assessment in its latest analysis of the war in Ukraine, published on Sunday evening, Polish state news agency PAP reported.
Severodonetsk and eastern Ukraine
The think tank wrote: “Concentrated Russian artillery power paired with likely understrength infantry units remains insufficient to enable Russian advances within Severodonetsk, as Russian troops continued to fight for control of the city but made few gains on June 19.”
The ISW added that Russian units continued efforts to surround the remaining Ukrainian soldiers in the Azot chemical plant.
Elsewhere in eastern Ukraine, Russian units were also advancing on Lysychansk from the south and fighting in Berestove, Spirne, Vovchoyarivka, and the Lysychansk Oil Refinery, the think tank said, citing Russian channels on the Telegram messaging app.
The ISW further noted that Russian troops conducted airstrikes around the cities of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, strengthened the forces stationed south of the area around Orikhove and Toshkivka, and sought to cut off the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway to aid the offensive in Lysychansk.
Successful Ukrainian counterattacks in Kherson, Zaporizhia
Meanwhile, “Recent Ukrainian counter attacks have forced Russian troops to focus on maintaining their defensive positions along the Southern Axis on June 19th,” the US think tank reported.
It added: “It is likely that localised Ukrainian counterattacks continue to push back Russian forces, especially along the Kherson-Mykolaiv Oblast border, and Ukrainian forces may be able to further threaten Kherson City in the coming weeks.”
At the same time, Russia continues “to accumulate equipment and manpower in central Zaporizhia Oblast, specifically along the Dniprorudne-Vasylivka-Orikhiv line, likely in response to Ukrainian counterattacks,” the ISW said.
Meanwhile, Russian authorities will likely "seek to use war crimes trials against captured Ukrainian servicemen, particularly troops that defended Mariupol, to advance its narratives around the war,” the think tank warned.
The ISW also said that the Kremlin was continuing to attempt to wage a major war in Ukraine, after incorrectly assuming there would be “a short invasion against token Ukrainian resistance.”
“The Kremlin continues to struggle to correct this fundamental flaw in its ‘special military operation,’” the Institute for the Study of War wrote.
'Russia’s air force has underperformed': UK defence ministry
Meanwhile, the British defence ministry pointed to the poor performance of the Russian air force as a factor in the current state of the war.
In their latest intelligence update, published on Monday, the UK analysts wrote: “Russia’s air force has underperformed. Its failure to consistently deliver air power is likely one of the most important factors behind Russia’s very limited campaign success.”
The British defence officials added that Russia’s air force “cannot gain full air superiority and has operated in a risk-averse style.”
Monday is day 117 of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
(pm/gs)
Source: PAP, understandingwar.org