Przemysław Żurawski vel Grajewski, a political scientist at the University of Łódź in central Poland, made the claim in an interview with the tvp.info website.
In a wide-ranging discussion on the latest developments and potential future direction of the war in Ukraine, Żurawski vel Grajewski was asked about recent statements by French President Emmanuel Macron, who has called for the West to provide Russia with security guarantees as part of any negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, according to reports.
In early December, Macron said that Europe’s future security architecture “should give guarantees for Russia,” the Reuters news agency reported.
The French president repeated his call this week.
‘France’s perception of reality is at odds with Poland's interests’
Żurawski vel Grajewski said: “I don’t expect much from France, because France’s perception of reality is completely at odds with Poland's interests.”
He added: “The French would like to see a smaller United States presence in the European security architecture. This would require a defeat for Ukraine and a victory for Russia.”
Żurawski vel Grajewski went on to say: “For Paris and Berlin, Russia is a partner in their efforts to drive the US out of Europe, rather than a threat.”
'Scandinavian-Baltic-Polish-Ukrainian alliance'
He predicted: “If Ukraine wins, it will create a strong group of countries on NATO’s eastern flank. A Scandinavian-Baltic-Polish-Ukrainian alliance, with the possible inclusion of Romania, that will undermine the political standing of both Germany and France, while working closely with the US and Britain. Europe’s centre of gravity will move to the east.”
According to Żurawski vel Grajewski, Poland and Ukraine would be strengthened in this scenario, as they are already “the two biggest armies among non-nuclear-weapon states.”
Moreover, the Ukrainian armed forces now possess “unrivalled battlefield experience from a full-on war,” he added.
'France and Germany will lose some of their political importance'
Żurawski vel Grajewski also said: “If Russia is defeated, France and Germany will lose some of their political importance. Both countries are determined to prevent this.”
He added: “They assume, incorrectly, that a victory over Ukraine would satisfy Russia’s appetites. It wouldn’t. They forget that a few decades ago, Moscow controlled one-fourth of Berlin and a half of Germany; Soviet tanks stood 400 kilometres from Paris.”
“At that time, everyone in France and West Germany knew what the stakes were. But they have forgotten,” Żurawski vel Grajewski told tvp.info.
Friday was day 303 of Russia’s war in Ukraine.
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Source: tvp.info, Reuters, lemonde.fr/en, wsj.com