Putin's plan for tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus unlikely to presage Russian escalation: analysis

The possible deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus is unlikely to be a sign of escalation by Moscow, a US think tank has said.

Russian President Vladimir Putin

Photo: EPA/Alexei Danichev/SPUTNIK/KREMLIN

Russia and Belarus on Thursday "signed agreements formally advancing preparations to deploy Russian tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus as part of a longstanding effort to cement Russia’s de facto military control over Belarus," the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank said in its latest analysis of Russia's military campaign in Ukraine.

It added that "Russia has not yet deployed nuclear weapons to Belarus and their possible deployment is highly unlikely to presage any Russian escalation." 

#Russia and #Belarus signed agreements formally advancing preparations to deploy Russian tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus as part of a longstanding effort to cement #Moscow’s de facto military control over #Minsk. https://t.co/0zKRRDTqRQ https://t.co/u3npOFJ9Ly

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) May 26, 2023

The Washington-based think tank reported that Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Belarusian Defence Minister Viktor Khrenin signed documents on the deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons to Belarusian territory during a meeting in the Belarusian capital Minsk on Thursday.

"Shoigu emphasized that Russia would retain control of the tactical nuclear weapons in the event of their deployment to Belarus and claimed that Belarusian aircraft are now capable of carrying nuclear weapons," according to the ISW.

Lukashenka announced the beginning of the relocation of Russian nuclear warheads to Belarus

"We had to prepare storage sites and other things there [in Belarus]. We did all this. That's why the relocation of nuclear warheads started," said Lukashenka in an interview with Russian… pic.twitter.com/r7LNjpHXmQ

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) May 25, 2023

Earlier this year, Russian President Vladimir Putin said he was planning to station tactical nuclear weapons in neighbouring Belarus and that Minsk would have a storage facility for Russian nuclear weapons ready by July 1, according to reports at the time.

'Putin is extraordinarily unlikely to use nuclear weapons'

The ISW said on Thursday it was standing by its earlier assessment that "Putin is extraordinarily unlikely to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine or elsewhere."

According to the US think tank, Shoigu on Thursday announced that Russian forces would deploy additional military contingents to Belarus to develop military infrastructure, expand joint combat training, and conduct reconnaissance activities.

The ISW observed that "the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus requires both significant military infrastructure and Russian command and control over elements of the Belarusian armed forces."

It assessed that the Kremlin "likely intends to use these requirements to further subordinate the Belarusian security sphere under Russia."

3/ The deployment of tactical nuclear weapons to #Belarus requires both significant military infrastructure and Russian command and control over elements of the Belarusian Armed Forces.

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) May 26, 2023

Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, launching the largest military campaign in Europe since World War II.

Friday is day 457 of Russia’s war on Ukraine.

(gs)

Source: PAP, understandingwar.org