Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is set to attend the discussions, though Hungary’s opposition threatens to weaken the show of unity.
The meeting takes place against a backdrop of shifting security concerns, with fears that a resurgent Russia, emboldened by its war in Ukraine and by Trump's recent pausing of military aid to the country, could pose a direct threat to EU member states.
Hungary threatens to block Ukraine support
Almost all EU leaders want to reassure Zelensky that he can still rely on European backing following his tense Oval Office meeting with Trump last week.
However, Hungary, led by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, has threatened to veto a summit declaration supporting Ukraine.
In a letter to European Council President António Costa, Orbán said that Hungary's "strategic differences in our approach to Ukraine cannot be bridged."
Despite these divisions, EU leaders are expected to push forward with plans to enhance military aid coordination.
The EU's foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, has proposed a EUR 20 billion military support package for Ukraine in 2025, matching the bloc's contributions in 2024.
However, member states have yet to agree on individual contributions, with Nordic, Baltic and Dutch officials criticizing larger economies such as France, Italy and Spain for allegedly not contributing enough—a claim those governments dispute.
EU defense spending plans gain momentum
Beyond Ukraine, the summit will focus on strengthening European defense capabilities amid growing doubts over US protection.
The European Commission has outlined a sweeping plan to mobilize up to EUR 800 billion for defense spending, including a proposal to borrow EUR 150 billion to provide low-interest loans to EU governments for military investments.
Diplomats expect leaders to broadly endorse these measures and instruct officials to draft concrete legislation. However, final agreements will require difficult negotiations among member states.
Poland’s role and eastern border security
The summit’s draft conclusions emphasize the importance of securing the EU’s eastern flank against potential threats from Russia and Belarus.
Poland, which has been calling for increased support for border defense, is likely to benefit from EU funding for its Eastern Shield project—a fortification system along its borders.
Specific details on funding allocation are expected in the European Commission’s forthcoming White Paper.
Flexibility on defense budget rules?
To facilitate increased military spending, Brussels is considering loosening EU fiscal rules on deficit and debt limits, allowing member states to expand defense budgets without penalty.
Additionally, the European Commission may permit reallocation of regional development funds for military purposes, though individual governments would retain control over such decisions.
While uncertainty remains over Hungary’s final stance, European leaders are determined to push forward with both defense initiatives and continued military aid to Ukraine, even if unanimity is not reached.
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Source: IAR, Reuters