The quiet visits happen behind closed doors, with little to no media coverage—political opponents in Belarus often describe them as occasions when Lukashenko goes "to ask for money."
The louder visits serve a different purpose. During these, Lukashenko grants numerous interviews to Kremlin propagandists, enthusiastically promoting the bright future of the so-called Union State of Belarus and Russia.
These appearances reassure Russian citizens that they are not alone in their fight for a "more just world order"—after all, they have a strong (if nearly solitary) ally in Lukashenko’s Belarus.
Lukashenko’s visit to Moscow earlier this month was one of the loud ones. During his stay, he made several noteworthy statements.
He claimed that Russia and Belarus had "had enough of war" and were not planning any attacks on European countries.
In an interview with Russian state media figure Olga Skabeyeva, he dismissed European fears that Russia might invade within the next five years.
"Maybe they need it?" Lukashenko said, suggesting that Western leaders were deliberately fueling tensions.
"I’ll tell you this—Putin and Russia’s leadership are not planning any war. In five years, there will be no war. We’ve had enough of it. Even you, Olga—a real warrior, fighting in the media trenches—would you support a war with Poland in five years? No, because why would we need it? They’re the ones trying to inflame the situation."
He went further, insisting that if Russia were planning an attack, he would know about it. "Listen, if we were preparing for war, I would definitely know. After all, the whole operation would span the 1,500-kilometer border with the Baltics and Poland. But we have no such plans."
'We have never planned any attack on Europe'
Lukashenko also brought up past discussions with Putin about "Western threats" to close the Baltic Sea to Russian trade. "I joked with Vladimir Vladimirovich," he said. "I told him: ‘Well, we might have to use warships to escort our bulk carriers.’ We laughed about it, and that was that."
He then repeated, for the third time in a single conversation: "We have never planned any attack on Europe. They know this perfectly well."
For those familiar with Lukashenko's rhetoric, such repeated assurances often signal the exact opposite.
Belarusian political observers have long noted that when Lukashenko insists on something three times, reality tends to contradict him.
A classic example: When he repeatedly claimed that the Belarusian ruble was stable and there would be no devaluation, citizens who rushed to exchange their savings for dollars turned out to be the wise ones—because the very next day, a sudden devaluation was imposed.
'The end of Europe and Ukraine combined'
And yet, amid his reassurances in Moscow, Lukashenko let slip a strikingly different remark: "If Russia reaches an agreement with the US, it will be the end of Europe and Ukraine combined."
This paints a picture very different from his claim that Russia and Belarus are on the "front line in the fight for a just world order"—unless, of course, he considers the destruction of Europe and Ukraine to be a form of justice.
If this is indeed the vision, then Belarus is already playing its part in making it a reality.
'Military workshop' for Russia’s war machine
Speaking recently in Strasbourg, Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya described Belarus as not only a "testing ground" but also a "military workshop" for Russia’s war machine.
"Two hundred eighty-seven state-owned enterprises produce weapons for Russia," she revealed.
Meanwhile, the Belarusian opposition group BelPol—comprising former law enforcement officers who oppose Lukashenko’s regime—has reported that, according to their sources, Belarus' military-industrial complex will reach peak rearmament in 2027-2028.
Which raises the real question: What are Putin and his subordinate in Minsk planning for 2029? Because if they claim they have no plans—well, history suggests we should prepare for the opposite.
Jan Krzysztof Michalak in Belarus