Former deputy head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Belarus and former opposition candidate for the office of president Andrei Sannikov, referring to the recent visit of the Russian defense minister in Minsk, noted that the previous trip of Sergei Shoigu to the capital of Belarus took place exactly three weeks before the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, i.e. on 3 February 2022.
"In my opinion, this time Shoigu came to finalize the preparations for the next offensive from the territory of Belarus: to work out the details. The preparation for this new invasion is different than in February, but it is not less dangerous. We have at least 9-10 thousand Russian soldiers on the territory of Belarus. In addition, a hidden mobilization takes place. And Belarusians, as Alyaksandr Lukashenka confessed, train together with the Russian army. This means that an offensive of combined forces - Lukashenka's and Putin's armies - is being prepared", said Andrei Sannikov, former deputy foreign minister of Belarus, former political prisoner, the former opposition candidate for the office of president of Belarus and leader of the "European Belarus" social campaign.
About the sudden death of the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Belarus
Andrei Sannikov said that Uladzimir Makei, the recently deceased head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Belarus, was loyal both to the Kremlin and to the Belarusian regime, and certainly not to the Belarusians - he faithfully played the roles assigned to him, including the role of a liberal - in order to get more money from the West for the Lukashenka regime.
No new sanctions were imposed on Lukashenka
Sannikov noted that the latest sanctions package did not affect Belarus. "If you are too soft on dictators, they become even more aggressive. For Putin, the fact that Lukashenka has not been sanctioned means that Kremlin can do whatever he likes in this field", he said. "And Lukashenka’s attitude is not important here: whether he is reluctant to become more involved in the war or not. Reluctant or not - it doesn't matter. He has no choice. He is controlled by Vladimir Putin. Sooner or later, he will submit to Putin’s decisions".
The former deputy head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs also emphasized that Western analysts constantly make the same mistake: they assume that Alyaksandr Lukashenka has more room for maneuver than he actually has, and many people, especially in Belarus, pay the cost of this error.
The context of Shoigu's visit to Belarus
On December 3, defense ministers of Russia and Belarus, Sergei Shoigu and Viktar Khrenin, signed a protocol changing the agreement on "joint security in the military sphere" of Russia and Belarus (dating back to December 19, 1997). It was not specified what changes were made.
Shoigu's visit to Minsk was preceded by a telephone conversation between Putin and Lukashenka (December 2), the details of which traditionally have not been disclosed. The Kremlin indicated that it concerned bilateral relations, while the Lukashenka administration communicated on its internet site that during the conversation with Putin the "operation" in Ukraine was discussed, adding that a schedule of further meetings has been agreed upon, including a December meeting between Putin and Lukashenka in Moscow (Lukashenka received an invitation), as well "watches have been synchronized" ahead of the Eurasian Economic Community summit on December 9 in Kyrgyzstan.
On December 3, Shoigu met in Minsk with his counterpart, but also with Lukashenka. Several short videos illustrating the meeting have been made public. As one of them shows, Lukashenka says, among other things: that a "common army" is being created, a joint grouping of troops is being prepared, and Russian and Belarusian officers are training both Belarusians and Russians.
In the first decade of October, Alyaksandr Lukashenka announced that the so-called Regional Grouping of Russian and Belarusian Forces was being launched. It is being created on the territory of Belarus. Earlier, on September 26, Lukashenko and Putin met in person in Sochi. It was not stated what they were talking about, probably the formation of the Regional Grouping of Russian and Belarusian Forces was also discussed, but certainly, it was not the only topic of this conversation. In mid-October (October 16), press agencies, citing the Belarusian Ministry of Defence, reported that about 9,000 military personnel were to be sent to Belarus from Russia to form the g Regional Grouping of Russian and Belarusian Forces.
More in the interview.
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PolskieRadio24.pl: Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu came to Minsk on Saturday, December 3. It might seem that this visit could have an urgent character because the day before, on Friday, December 2, there was a telephone conversation between Alyaksandr Lukashenka and Vladimir Putin. Alyaksandr Lukashenka said on Saturday that during this conversation, Putin announced the arrival of Shoigu.
We know that Minsk and Moscow discuss their plans in secret. They conceal their actions even more carefully in war conditions when a surprise can bring a significant advantage to an attacking force.
Their conversations and plans are kept secret. We could ask why we should discuss it if we do not know that much.
But in view of the ongoing war we are obliged to ask ourselves about the reasons, the purpose of such a visit and what it will bring in the future.
What are your reflections on this?
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Andrei Sannikov, former deputy foreign minister of Belarus, former political prisoner, the former opposition candidate for the office of president of Belarus, and leader of the European Belarus social campaign:
Of course, it is a quite dangerous event. When criminals meet, I mean Shoigu, Lukashenka, and Khrenin, they do not discuss the recipe for Christmas dishes.
They discuss preparations for military offensive and war. And I think that was discussed there.
The war was certainly discussed.
I think we have to remember that Shoigu made his previous visit to Minsk in February of this year, three weeks before the invasion started.
At that time both of them lied. Lukashenka lied that there were just military exercises taking place and that Russia and Belarus were just checking "compatibility" and coordination between the troops of the two countries.
But it was clear then and it is even more clear now that Putin and Lukashenka were preparing the invasion.
So I think also this time Shoigu came to finalize the details for another offensive from the territory of Belarus.
We have completely forgotten about it. The exact date of the previous Shoigu visit to Minsk is February 3, 2022, exactly 21 days before Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24. In the early morning of February 24, Russian troops entered Ukraine also from the territory of Belarus.
And now, as you say, Shoigu has come to Minsk with a similar mission.
The preparation for this invasion is different than in February, but it is no less dangerous. There are already about 9-10 thousand Russian troops on the territory of Belarus.
In addition, we have a hidden mobilization, and those who are mobilized are being trained.
What is more, the Belarusian military, as Lukashenka confessed, trained together with the Russian army.
So it means that they are preparing a so-called joint force of Lukashenka and Putin's army.
Of course, since we have a war in Ukraine, it is being prepared to attack Ukraine.
The Regional Grouping of Russia and Belarus has been organized since October. Earlier, on September 26, there was a personal meeting between Putin and Lukashenka in Sochi, where this matter was probably discussed.
Statements made public in Belarus in connection with Shoigu’s visit on 3 December concern the state of work on the Regional Grouping of Russian and Belarusian Forces. As well a protocol was signed, concerning changes to the Belarusian-Russian agreement on regional security (of December 19, 1997). The protocol was signed on Saturday by the defense ministers of Russia and Belarus. It is not known exactly what the changes are about.
The signing of the protocol probably does not bring anything new - at least as far as the regional grouping of the troops is concerned. This kind of grouping is already included in the military doctrine of Russia and Belarus.
Now, however, Putin and Lukashenko are implementing this plan in practical terms. And it means that the Belarusian military is being included in the units which are under the command of the Russians. It is clear that Belarusians will not be allowed to command these units.
We would not like to see such a big danger here. However, we cannot afford to be comfortable with what is going on.
Unfortunately, we have to see more clearly the role of Lukashenka, Shoigu, and other criminals play in the war against Ukraine.
For sure, Putin would like to make use of Belarusian soldiers in this war. And the regional grouping will be created most probably for this purpose. We can add that in conversation with Lukashenka, Shoigu stated that the "Russian deputy commander of the land forces" was present in Belarus.
We can see here different kinds of scenarios. They are all quite dangerous.
For example, the well-known expert Yuri Felshtynski, a historian, who lives in the USA, believes that Putin could strike with nuclear weapons from the territory of Belarus, most probably it would be an attack on Poland or Lithuania, not even on Ukraine. It is not an imaginary scenario. We remember that the "nuclear strike on Warsaw" was in the scenario of military exercise Zapad.
Another scenario is an offensive toward Kyiv. We know that for Putin Kyiv is the most valuable prize, his propaganda says that Ukraine without the capital will be conquered, and will not be able to repel the attack.
However, whatever scenario they will choose - each assumes the use of the territory of Belarus and involves the regime of Lukashenka.
Meanwhile, let us emphasize that the West is sending the wrong signals to Lukashenko. The latest sanctions package does not cover Minsk.
If you are too soft on dictators, they become even more aggressive. For Putin, the fact that Lukashenka has not been sanctioned means that Kremlin can do whatever he likes in this field.
And Lukashenka’s attitude is not important here: whether he is reluctant to become more involved in the war or not. Such opinions are irrelevant. Reluctant or not - it doesn't matter. He has no choice. He is controlled by Vladimir Putin. Sooner or later, he will submit to Putin’s decisions.
If we go back to the meeting with Shoigu, Lukashenka stresses several times in the shared video: "we will do whatever we agreed, we will comply with our obligations". He emphasizes this because Putin has probably promised him additional funding to prolong his dictatorial regime.
It has always been a mistake of the West that it assumed some "room for maneuver" for Lukashenko while analyzing the situation in the region. This is a wrong approach.
There are still many who say that the decision on the involvement of Belarusian troops in the war depends on Alyaksandr Lukashenka, and he does not want it. For example, that is what we can find in the Institute for the Study of War daily briefings. Some do believe that Lukashenka will not send troops to Ukraine because it would mean his end, and he is aware of this.
Again, we need to be more attentive while writing our analyses.
If we base our analysis on what Lukashenko wants or on what he doesn't want to do, this is not a realistic approach.
It is a lack of common sense that has long been present in this kind of narrative about Belarus, and which we are witnessing now as well.
This might be sometimes an important factor, but we know, as you pointed out, and everyone has to agree - it is not a decisive factor. This should be taken into account. For the Kremlin, as it has the upper hand and controls Belarus, what matters, is its own agenda.
Moreover: Alyaksandr Lukashenka's will is irrelevant here. The regional grouping of troops we talked about will be under the control of the Kremlin. And it will not be Lukashenka who will decide whether it will cross the state border.
Formally it could be presented as if the decisions were taken by the so-called Supreme Council of Russia and Belarus, but in fact, it will be completely controlled by Kremlin. So Lukashenka's opinion is irrelevant.
Lukashenka is a dictator, a depraved, sick man - I always feel strange when I read analyzes that are based on his feelings or behavior.
And we have concrete, clear facts about what is happening on the territory of Belarus. We just have to start from this.
Surely, Lukashenka and Putin are planning something. The Ukrainian part presents different opinions on this matter: for example, it claims that there are no preparations for an attack involving Belarusians so far. However, Ukrainian official sources do not specify what data they base these forecasts on, or whether they have the ability to observe troop movements, moreover, one should be aware that this is an assessment "for the moment being", and a lot can change in the near future. On the other hand, some officials warn from time to time that troops from Belarus could attack Volhynia in order to cut off the supply route running through Poland. There are many different scenarios....
One can also ask about the suddenness of Shoigu's visit. On Friday, December 2, a conversation between Putin and Lukashenko took place, and then on December 3, Shoigu traveled to Minsk. Is it about the dictator’s whims or is there something important behind it?
Here the development of events is quite logical. Lukashenka and Putin discussed the situation in Sochi in September, then Putin told Lukashenko over the phone that they were getting ready for the next agreed stage that they had discussed with him earlier. And he told: "Shoigu will come to Minsk on Saturday to explain what we need".
I think that's it. Again, it is not correct to perceive the phone call and then the trip to Minsk as something "unexpected".
One should be aware that Putin and Lukashenka operate very systematically, they are talking when they need to talk. There is definitely a lot of military activity going on - in the territory of Belarus.
It must be remembered that Russian troops have been operating very intensively on the territory of Belarus for many months.
You are right, it requires very close, intensive cooperation.
Mobilized soldiers are currently being trained in Belarus. There is a constant movement of troops, military equipment, and weapons. Some of the weapons are going to Russia and some to Belarus.
Recently, on Sunday, a missile complex Tochka brought from Russia was photographed on the territory of Belarus.
We do not know what exactly is happening in the military barracks in Belarus, or what preparations are taking place there.
There is some information about the presence of Russian generals on the territory of Belarus. I think there are a lot of Russian officers in Belarus now - including intelligence officers, e.g. FSB. They are all highly mobilized, and they all work.
There is some information about the presence of Russian generals on the territory of Belarus. I think there are a lot of Russian officers in Belarus now - including intelligence officers, e.g. FSB. They are all highly mobilized, and they all work.
On November 30, Belarusian state media published an interview with defense minister Viktar Khrenin, who, when asked about the mobilization, said that they are only checking data, and updating mobilization lists. But on the other hand, there is some information coming from Belarus that a covert mobilization is taking place.
The Lukashenka regime always lies. For example, they say it's about defending Belarus... Lukashenka is now arguing that Belarus never wanted a war… They believe that if they repeat a lie many times, people will believe it more easily.
I think that Lukashenko and Putin are definitely preparing for the next stage of the military operation.
I think that especially Ukrainians should be alarmed by this, but not only them. The West should also be concerned because Putin is not going to stop.
And encouraging a dictator is putting all of us in greater danger. I mean no sanctions for Lukashenka, Macron talking about "security guarantees" for Russia and Putin...
What do you think about such a proposal from French President Emmanuel Macron?
This is a return, to use this word, to the previously observed - stupidity. The West has been demonstrating it in view of the danger posed by the Kremlin for many years.
Sometimes you can ask yourself, if it is stupidity, or if it is something else behind it. It's strange that they don't learn from their mistakes... German Chancellor Olaf Scholz spoke for an hour with Putin last week, nobody knows the purpose, a bit later Macron is talking about security guarantees...
Security guarantees have already been given to Ukraine, in the Budapest Memorandum. Russia signed it and later invaded Ukraine. France, Great Britain, USA signed it and disregard it.
However, one can ask oneself why we can see such a willingness to talk with Moscow. Russia has just bombed Ukraine. Logical thinking suggests that if Moscow were punished for it, maybe it wouldn't dare to do it again in a few days... Meanwhile, instead of punishing Moscow, talks are being held…
It's winter. Many people in Europe, especially in richer countries, have become accustomed to a comfortable life, no matter what is happening in the world, whether someone is dying or starving. They are used to a comfortable life.
The leaders of those countries have become managers, not very capable ones, instead of becoming real leaders of the free world.
They don't react properly to what's going on. They should be demonstrating their strength and leadership, instead, they wonder how to win the next election.
A few days ago, the death of Foreign Minister Uladzimir Makei was announced. There are many speculations on this subject, some say that it was not a natural death, and others want to associate it with the politics of Russia and Belarus. So far we don't have certain information about it.
It doesn't really matter in this situation. The regimes of Putin and Lukashenko are bloody and murderous, they kill both opponents and those who are loyal to them.
However, it is important to assess the role of Makei in the history of Belarus. I am surprised that some people describe him as being genuinely pro-European. Nothing like that.
I was also surprised by these descriptions.
Makei was a "GRU and SFB figure". According to the media, he worked in the Soviet GRU at an early stage of his career. It was clear to me that he had ties to both the Belarusian KGB and the Russian FSB.
Narratives proving that he wore a Belarusian embroidered shirt, and therefore Moscow did not like him - surprise me greatly and they are, one might say, too simplistic, not to say primitive.
He was the best friend of Sergei Lavrov. It was clear. He had very friendly relations with Moscow. He was consulting things with Lavrov whenever something happened. He was allowed to play the role of a liberal and negotiate with the West to get money for Alyaksandr Lukashenka's regime.
This is clear to me because I know this system very well from the inside. I also knew Makei. He was not a very smart person, but he was very loyal, both to Lukashenka and to the Kremlin. But there was no loyalty to Belarusians in it.
I know this system very well from the inside. I also knew Makei. He was not a very smart person, but he was very loyal, both to Lukashenka and to the Kremlin. But there was no loyalty to Belarusians in it.
He was to play the role that was assigned to him.
Yes. Some say that he was physically liquidated because he was trying to separate Belarus from Russia. None of these things.
He was a very strong supporter of the so-called Union State of Russia and Belarus. He co-organized joint meetings of foreign ministers of Russia and Belarus. He has always worked for Lukashenka, but also for Putin.
If he was to be murdered, it is even more logical to assume that it was ordered by Lukashenka, not by Moscow. I think so because the closeness of any official to the Kremlin is a solid motive for someone as paranoid as Lukashenko to get rid of a person.
And maybe Makei knew too much…
All this, however, does not have a big impact on the current situation. There were comments that this is an event that has the characteristics of the so-called black swan - in the sense that it's unexpected because we don't have all the knowledge of what's going on.
When the system is at the limit of its ability to function, then tensions arise in it, and this is when such "black swans" can be "flying" from different directions.
Then you should expect more black swans - more unexpected things that can happen.
We cannot analyze such events well, they are unexpected. Nevertheless, they imply the regime's weaknesses and herald its final collapse.
Nevertheless, it must be added that the situation is so dangerous that we should not speculate. It is difficult to base your thinking on speculations.
Anyway, we often do not know what is really going on, what Minsk and Moscow are planning, but we need to think about it all the more. We have to ask questions.
If we don't know something, we have to go back to what we already know.
There's a war going on. This war is being conducted by the Kremlin, with the use of Belarusian territory and with the help of the regime of Alyaksandr Lukashenka. The tension on Ukraine's northern border is created by Lukashenko's regime. These simple facts should be the basis of any analysis.
There is no point in wondering what mood Lukashenko was in at some moment.
There's a war going on. This war is being conducted by the Kremlin, with the use of Belarusian territory and with the help of the regime of Alyaksandr Lukashenka. The tension on Ukraine's northern border is created by Lukashenko's regime. These simple facts should be the basis of any analysis
It is now also obvious that Putin and Lukashenka are planning something.
You have to understand that they are constantly and intensively collaborating and definitely planning something against Ukraine. It is certain. It was even known before the visit of Shoigu.
You have to understand that they are constantly and intensively collaborating and definitely planning something against Ukraine. It is certain. It was even known before the visit of Shoigu.
Therefore, it is important that any analysis should be based on facts. And the facts convincingly show that Lukashenko's actions are an integral part of the war with Ukraine. It is necessary to apply the same sanctions and containment measures against him - as against Russia.
Ultimately, both regimes must stand before an international tribunal to answer for their crimes.
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Agnieszka Marcela Kamińska, PolskieRadio24.pl
