Latvian expert Olevs Nikers, president of the Baltic Security Foundation and an analyst of the Latvian Institute of International Affairs, emphasized in an interview with PolskieRadio24.pl that in the current situation, the eastern flank and the Baltic states should strengthen their defense potential and cooperate in this area with Finland and Sweden.
The analyst emphasized that serious efforts should be made to prevent the threat of potential Russian aggression against Ukraine and as well against the Baltic states (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia). The situation of these countries in this context, he said, does look"ugly".
We are talking about direct threats not only to Ukraine. We should fully comprehend that it is also about as well about Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, he says.
The situation is additionally aggravated by Russian military activity in Belarus near to Ukrainian, Polish, the Baltic states' borders.
Currently, Russia's troops are being transferred to Belarus as part of the Union State's combat readiness check. Later on, February 10-20, Belarus and Russia will hold the active phase of joint exercises Allied Determination. Moscow announced transferring S-400 and Pancyr-S missile systems to Belarus for these drills.
Putin demands from the USA and NATO to return to the security situation before NATO enlargement in 1999. It should therefore be noted that the Baltic states and Poland are becoming the target of Russia's offensive strategy if these demands are not met, the Baltic Security Foundation chairman noted.
More in the interview.
PolskieRadio24.pl: PolskieRadio24.pl: The West did not agree to step down in reaction to Russian blackmail, i.e. Kremlin's demands to block NATO enlargement, as well as to restore the Alliance's infrastructure to its state from 1997. Western countries show support to Ukraine, along whose borders Russia has been gathering troops already for a long time. What is your overall perception of the situation? What should be done, how should we respond to Russia's aggressive demands?
Olevs Nikers, president of the Baltic Security Foundation: In general, I would say that in this situation, Russia is demonstrating its intentions to start a major war in Europe. All the countries around are under the threat, not only Ukraine.
Putin demands from the US and NATO to return to the security situation that was before NATO enlargement in 1999.
One has to say that the Baltic countries and Poland are targeted by Russia's offensive strategy if these demands are not met.
So what should be done in this situation? First, I would say, it is about the consolidation of resources and defensive capabilities across the region, which is an ultimate task for the regional partners.
So here I see two main directions. This consolidation should take place within the wider Baltic Sea region and within the eastern direction, which must include the Baltic countries and Poland.
Poland and the Baltic countries should synchronize their defenses as much as possible, and this process should include Finland. Next, Finland and Sweden should join NATO in order to succeed in fully harmonized regional security and defense system among the partnering countries across the Baltic Sea.
The Baltic countries should fully synchronize their defenses. This goes for operational planning, developing capabilities, especially air defense and maritime security.
Budgeting and planning should be synchronized in order to proceed with joint procurement projects which would allow to build up more solid air defense and naval capabilities.
In these projects Poland and Finland should be engaged as well.
Next, we need offensive capabilities within the cyber domain, this is necessary and that would allow preemptive operations and strikes. It is not like building offensive military capabilities, but building offensive cyber capabilities against adversary.
US troops in Europe should be moved to Poland and the Baltic countries as soon as possible. If that cannot be done in full, then at least 50-75 percent of the forces that are stationed in Germany and other countries should be moved to the Baltic States and Poland.
In Europe we should have full independence from Russia. Projects like Nord Stream pipeline from Russia to Germany should be cut as soon as possible. Russian capital should be minimized in Europe, especially across eastern and central Europe. And the same goes for the informational channels and projects on the cultural diplomacy.
They should be monitored more cautiously and cut if necessary.
My last point is that societal resilience should be strengthened in the Baltic countries and Poland, so that societies could be prepared against possible provocations or crisis situations which would also include possible offensive by Russia.
From our perspective, the recent actions of Russia on the territory of Belarus are really worrying. I mean the transfer of military forces, the Allied Determination exercises, an ongoing test of the Union State's combat readiness.
I think there should be a unified strategy for Belarus and Russia. I think we are going in that direction. We should perceive them as one operational factor.
And that means that we are talking about direct threats, not only to Ukraine.
We should fully comprehend that it is also about as well about Lithuania, Latvia, also Poland.
What if developments would go in that direction, which we can find e.g. in the recent Lukashenko rhetoric, as he is recently threatening the Baltic countries?
I think that when we consider Russian military operation against Ukraine and Russian possibilities to undertake offensive actions against the Baltic countries – then we can see that in military terms for Russia it would be much easier to go with the offensive against the Baltic countries.
So, if we take a look at the Baltic countries, this situation looks very ugly.
So Ukraine is in danger, we have to defend Ukraine and it is under the massive threat. But we cannot forget as well about the Baltic countries, the Baltic region, and NATO eastern flank in general. The situation is difficult - even if there are NATO countries here.
If we imagine the worst case scenario… We remember that Russia possess nuclear weapons. If they came into the Baltic countries, they would obtain many goals. They could try to undermine NATO as a collective arrangement.
And so we have to counteract all these threats at the same time, and all the possible Russian plans. You told me that Sweden and Finland are very relevant here.
When we look at the map, we can see Finland is bordering with Russia. Sweden as well should be engaged in the regional security format. The military capabilities they possess are important as well. They should become NATO members in my view.
We have recently had a lot of meetings in the region, a lot of consultations in the region. We had as well the Latvian prime minister visiting Warsaw not so long ago...
All the projects which could allow us to consolidate our security efforts across the region are very important.
Every project and every step that would bring something to meet our goals is needed, be it the steps made among the state leaders, military forces, be it other possible cooperation, among think tanks, academics, as well societal projects.
This all helps us. These projects help us to understand what is at stake and to really understand all these threats that are coming from Russia now.
All these developments are very needed right now.
Before the pandemics, we had good cooperation with Polish partners, e.g. the Warsaw Institute. At that time they stepped with the initiative to establish the Baltic Fund which would assume sharing the intellectual resources and capital assets across the Baltic countries and Poland in order to pursue the joint projects and consolidate the efforts of our countries. I hope efforts like this will be possible in the future as well.
We have very good cooperation with Poland. Think tanks in Poland are our closest partners, I would say. Sometimes we do not have so good communication with our colleagues from Baltic countries as with our colleagues in Poland.
This interest is really vivid now.
That is why it is important to build a framework for cooperation, to create institutions. Now many people understand better how much they are needed.
They are very much needed.
Ed. Agnieszka Marcela Kamińska, PolskieRadio24.pl
