United Surveys carried out the survey commissioned by the internet-based media house Wirtualna Polska.
The results show that Polish citizens believe that Law and Justice's Right Alliance will win the most votes in the October election (51.9%). However, only 18.4% believe that it will be able to form a majority government alone. (For several weeks, opinion polls have tended to show a win for the Right Alliance but without an independent majority.)
31.1% of respondents believe that the main opposition alliance (Civic Coalition (KO), led by Civic Platform (PO)) will obtain the most votes. Only 3.8% believe they will be able to win an independent majority.
Public opinion in this case stands in contrast to the opinions of experts like Professor Radosław Markowski and Professor Jarosław Flis:
Political scientists and sociologists like Markowski and Flis have tended to be somewhat sceptical about opinion polls based solely on the question "Who do you want to vote for?"
Flis, in several interviews, for example this recent interview for the daily Rzeczpospolita, compares current polling with all previous elections since 1991. He points out that no party has won an election with such a large negative electorate as Law and Justice currently possesses.
Like many commentators, Flis does not express certainty whether the far-right Konfederacja will agree to form a coalition with Law and Justice - contrary to repeated statements to the contrary. However, he suggested it would not be in the interest of Konfederacja whose supporters would see it as a betrayal, particularly of the "minimal-state" part of their values.
Some commentators have suggested that Konfederacja might agree to join a coalition with Law and Justice if they were, for example, given the Ministry of Finance. In the event of a Law and Justice victory without an independent majority, Konfederacja would be in an unusually strong negotiating position if their support would enable a majority government.
Sources: PAP, Rzeczpospolita, NaTemat, Twitter
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