The paper notes that demographic challenges and limited labor migration mean Poland cannot rely on workforce expansion for further growth.
Catching up with Japan and the EU
Poland’s GDP per capita (in purchasing power parity, PPP) is set to reach $47,100 in 2025, close to Japan’s $47,500, according to International Monetary Fund forecasts.
The IMF estimates Poland’s GDP per capita in 2024 stood at around 80% of the European Union average—up from 49% in 2004.
Economists say this “convergence story” is partly driven by increased labor participation and lower unemployment.
Regional disparities, demographic pressures
Yet vast regional gaps persist: Warsaw’s GDP per capita is over 55% above the EU average, while in some provinces output remains up to 47% lower.
Analysts warn Poland cannot rely on large-scale immigration or an expanding labor force to sustain growth.
Rzeczpospolita quoted Fitch chief economist Milan Trajkovic as saying that “Poland is a growth story,” but further advances depend on raising productivity.
Investment in automation and AI?
Economists argue automation, robotics, and artificial intelligence can help Poland overcome a shrinking working-age population.
However, adoption rates remain low: only 5.9% of Polish firms (with 10 or more employees) use AI—among the lowest in the EU—and robot density lags neighbors such as the Czech Republic and Slovakia.
Outlook: catching up with Spain, then Germany
Credit Agricole economist Jakub Borowski projects Poland could match Spain’s per capita GDP (PPP) by 2032, while simulations by the Warsaw Enterprise Institute suggest Poland may reach the EU average around 2034—and potentially close in on Germany soon after.
Economists warn that rapid productivity gains and stronger private investment are essential to maintain today’s momentum.
(jh)
Source: Rzeczpospolita