In its latest analysis of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, published on Tuesday, the ISW said that the Russian president was putting “the burden of supporting operations in Ukraine on ethnic minorities to avoid conducting a general mobilisation of ethnic Russians.”
The US experts added that such a policy “may trigger resistance in some of the ethnic enclaves that seem to be disproportionately bearing the burden of war.”
The ISW pointed out a “recent increase in the formation of regionally-based volunteer battalions through Russia, many of which fall along distinct ethnic lines.”
It also noted “the prevalence of non-ethnic Russian battalions fighting in Ukraine, which include troops from Chechnya, South Ossetia, Tuva, Tartarstan, Bashkortostan, Chuvashia, and others.”
According to the US analysts, “these indicators suggest that Putin may be unwilling to conduct general mobilisation in part due to a reluctance to mobilise large numbers of ethnic Russians.”
They noted “Putin’s apparent desire to have non-Russians bear the brunt of the war at this stage,” adding that this could “create domestic tension in these regions.”
Russia likely to focus on capturing Siversk, Bakhmut
Meanwhile on the front, Russian forces seem to be focusing on seizing the cities of Siversk and Bakhmut in the eastern Donetsk Oblast, the ISW wrote.
It added that, at this stage, the Kremlin was unlikely to focus on seizing nearby Slovyansk.
The US experts reported that Russian units “conducted a series of ground attacks east of Siversk and south of Bakhmut” on Monday.
In addition, Russian forces intensified efforts to advance on Avdiivka and conducted limited ground assaults along the Donetsk City-Avdiivka frontline,” the ISW said.
Moscow sending non-Russian servicemen on 'most risky' missions
Also on Tuesday, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that “dissatisfaction with the actions of the Russian command is growing among servicemen of non-Slavic nationalities, who are mercilessly thrown into the most risky attacks on the territory of Ukraine.”
Ukraine’s military command further wrote that “the enemy is trying to create conditions for resuming the offensive in the direction of Slovyansk.”
Donetsk
Reporting on other developments in the Donetsk region, it said: “The enemy carried out assaults near Spirne, had no success, retreated. Attempts are being made to advance in the direction of Hryhorivka, hostilities continue.”
Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces fended off Russian attempts to attack to the east and southeast of Bakhmut, the Ukrainian General Staff added.
North
In the northeastern Kharkiv Oblast, “after an airstrike near Husarivka, the occupiers tried to attack this settlement,” Ukraine’s military command reported, adding that Ukrainian soldiers "met the enemy with heavy fire and pushed the invaders back.”
Belarus border
As regards the border with Belarus, the Ukrainian General Staff wrote: “In the Volyn and Polissya directions the rotation of units of the armed forces of the Republic of Belarus, which are involved in covering the section of the Belarusian-Ukrainian border, continues.”
It added: “In the border areas, aerial reconnaissance by UAVs is conducted. The threat of missile and air strikes from the territory and airspace of the Republic of Belarus remains.”
Russia faces dilemma between sending forces to Donbas and Kherson
Meanwhile, the UK Ministry of Defence has noted that Russian planners face a dilemma between sending additional units to the eastern Donbas region and defending against Ukrainian counterattacks in the southwestern Kherson Oblast.
Problems with sustaining offensive combat power
In their latest intelligence update, published on Tuesday, the British analysts wrote: “Russia continues to commit what are nominally six separate armies to its Donbas offensive. At full strength, before the invasion, these formations were established for around 150,000 personnel.”
The UK experts pointed out that “in recent weeks, Russia has often operated with company-sized groupings of around 100 personnel when undertaking offensive operations in any one sector at a time.”
According to the British analysts, Russia "has struggled to sustain effective offensive combat power since the start of the invasion and this problem is likely becoming increasingly acute.”
Donbas or Kherson?
“As well as dealing with severe under-manning, Russian planners face a dilemma between deploying reserves to the Donbas or defending against Ukrainian counterattacks in the southwestern Kherson sector,” the UK Ministry of Defence stated.
The British analysts assessed: “Russia’s stated immediate policy objective is to seize all of Donetsk Oblast. While Russia may still make further territorial gains, their operational tempo and rate of advance is likely to be very slow without a significant operational pause for reorganisation and refit.”
Six injured as Russia strikes Ukraine’s Odessa region
Meanwhile, six people, including a child, have been injured in a Russian missile strike on Ukraine’s southwestern Odessa region on Tuesday morning, officials said.
According to Ukrainian media, Russia fired seven Kalibr cruise missiles from the Black Sea region, one of which was intercepted; the remaining six landed on a village near Odessa, setting fire to three houses and two outbuildings, Polish state news agency PAP reported.
Tuesday is day 146 of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
(pm/gs)
Source: PAP, understandingwar.org, facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua